ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT THU SEP 15 2005 LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES WELL-DEFINED BANDING IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND VERY COLD CONVECTION. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 55 KT. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED FROM 35 TO 45 KT AND MAY STILL BE A LITTLE BEHIND THE CURVE. OUTFLOW IS STRONG TO THE SOUTH BUT LIMITED ELSEWHERE. INTENSITY MODEL GUIDANCE IS SIMILAR THAT OF JOVA...WITH THE GFDL TAKING THE SYSTEM TO OVER 80 KT BUT THE SHIPS KEEPING THE CYCLONE AS A TROPICAL STORM. GIVEN THE MORE IMPRESSIVE ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM...I TEND TO LEAN TOWARDS THE GFDL SOLUTION. INTERESTINGLY...BOTH THE UKMET AND THE NOGAPS AGGRESSIVELY DEVELOP THE DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST OF KENNETH AND END UP HAVING THIS SYSTEM ABSORB KENNETH. THIS SCENARIO IS NOT CONSIDERED REALISTIC AT THIS TIME. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/7. KENNETH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH 48 HOURS...WITH THE RIDGE WEAKENING THEREAFTER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GFS AND GFDL GUIDANCE...WHICH DOES NOT SHOW MUCH OF AN INTERACTION WITH THE DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/1500Z 13.1N 120.3W 45 KT 12HR VT 16/0000Z 13.3N 121.4W 55 KT 24HR VT 16/1200Z 13.6N 122.5W 65 KT 36HR VT 17/0000Z 13.9N 123.6W 65 KT 48HR VT 17/1200Z 14.2N 124.6W 70 KT 72HR VT 18/1200Z 14.8N 126.5W 70 KT 96HR VT 19/1200Z 15.5N 129.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 20/1200Z 16.0N 131.5W 60 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 15-Sep-2005 14:40:19 UTC