Hurricane JOVA

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HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SAT SEP 17 2005
 
A 2228Z TRMM OVERPASS DEPICTED A VERY SMALL...ROUND EYE WITH DEEP
CENTRAL CORE CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST QUADRANTS. ALTHOUGH
THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS PROVIDING EXCELLENT OUTFLOW OVER THE
ENTIRE SYSTEM...RAINBANDS OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE HAVE WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY. DRY AIR COULD POSSIBLY
BE ENTRAINING FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE MID- LEVELS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS AT 90 KT. INTENSITY MODELS ALL SUGGEST
THAT JOVA HAS PEAKED AND SHOULD MAINTAIN CURRENT INTENSITY...WITH
SOME POSSIBLE FLUCTUATIONS...OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AFTERWARD...THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO COOLER WATERS
AND A LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC AIR MASS. BY DAY 4...UPPER
SOUTHWESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND...SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD OVER THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 270/9.  JOVA SHOULD GRADUALLY
MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE STEERING FLOW OF A
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS...
THEN CONTINUE NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST...
BASED PRIMARILY ON THE CONU CONSENSUS MODEL...IS SIMILAR TO THAT
FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
 
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      18/0300Z 13.0N 139.6W    90 KT
 12HR VT     18/1200Z 13.4N 140.4W    90 KT
 24HR VT     19/0000Z 14.0N 141.4W    90 KT
 36HR VT     19/1200Z 14.5N 142.5W    85 KT
 48HR VT     20/0000Z 15.0N 143.7W    80 KT
 72HR VT     21/0000Z 16.0N 145.5W    70 KT
 96HR VT     22/0000Z 17.5N 147.0W    60 KT
120HR VT     23/0000Z 20.5N 148.5W    60 KT
 
 
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