ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT SAT SEP 17 2005 A 2228Z TRMM OVERPASS DEPICTED A VERY SMALL...ROUND EYE WITH DEEP CENTRAL CORE CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST QUADRANTS. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS PROVIDING EXCELLENT OUTFLOW OVER THE ENTIRE SYSTEM...RAINBANDS OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAVE WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY. DRY AIR COULD POSSIBLY BE ENTRAINING FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE MID- LEVELS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS AT 90 KT. INTENSITY MODELS ALL SUGGEST THAT JOVA HAS PEAKED AND SHOULD MAINTAIN CURRENT INTENSITY...WITH SOME POSSIBLE FLUCTUATIONS...OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTERWARD...THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO COOLER WATERS AND A LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC AIR MASS. BY DAY 4...UPPER SOUTHWESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND...SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 270/9. JOVA SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE STEERING FLOW OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS... THEN CONTINUE NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST... BASED PRIMARILY ON THE CONU CONSENSUS MODEL...IS SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/0300Z 13.0N 139.6W 90 KT 12HR VT 18/1200Z 13.4N 140.4W 90 KT 24HR VT 19/0000Z 14.0N 141.4W 90 KT 36HR VT 19/1200Z 14.5N 142.5W 85 KT 48HR VT 20/0000Z 15.0N 143.7W 80 KT 72HR VT 21/0000Z 16.0N 145.5W 70 KT 96HR VT 22/0000Z 17.5N 147.0W 60 KT 120HR VT 23/0000Z 20.5N 148.5W 60 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Sunday, 18-Sep-2005 02:55:20 UTC