Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane JOVA


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SAT SEP 17 2005
 
A RECENT AMSU-B MICROWAVE OVERPASS SUGGESTS THE PRESENCE OF AN
IRREGULAR EYE BENEATH THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. OUTER BANDS
REMAIN IMPRESSIVE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST QUADRANTS.
DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE 90 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 77 KT FROM
AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 85 KT.
 
THE GFDL AND THE SHIPS INDICATE THAT WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR INTENSIFICATION
THROUGH 24 HOURS...POSSIBLY STRONGER THAN FORECAST. THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...JOVA SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS...AND INTO A LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
AIR MASS.  THE SHIPS MODEL...GFS...AND THE ECMWF ALSO SUGGEST
INCREASING UPPER SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLIES APPROACHING THE SYSTEM LATE
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 265/8.  JOVA SHOULD GRADUALLY
MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE STEERING FLOW OF A
MID- TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS.
THROUGH THE REMAINING FORECAST PERIOD...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
SHOULD REDUCE IN FORWARD MOTION AND TURN TOWARD NORTHWEST
IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF HAWAII. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS...WHICH IS CONSIDERABLY
SLOWER BEYOND DAY 3.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED
PRIMARILY ON THE CONU CONSENSUS MODEL AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
TRACK FORECAST.
 
FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      17/0900Z 12.2N 137.7W    85 KT
 12HR VT     17/1800Z 12.4N 138.9W    90 KT
 24HR VT     18/0600Z 12.7N 140.1W    90 KT
 36HR VT     18/1800Z 13.3N 141.3W    85 KT
 48HR VT     19/0600Z 13.9N 142.3W    80 KT
 72HR VT     20/0600Z 15.2N 144.2W    70 KT
 96HR VT     21/0600Z 16.5N 146.0W    60 KT
120HR VT     22/0600Z 18.0N 148.0W    60 KT
 
 
$$
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Saturday, 17-Sep-2005 09:10:37 UTC