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Tropical Storm JOVA


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT THU SEP 15 2005
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SYMMETRIC...SMALL TROPICAL
CYCLONE ABOUT 100 NM IN DIAMETER WITH INCREASING DEEP CONVECTION
AND COLDER CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AS WELL AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAIN UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS...CALLING FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE
THROUGH 48 HOURS. AFTERWARD...JOVA SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS...AND INTO A LESS FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.  SHIPS ALSO SUGGESTS A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN SHEAR BEYOND 72 HOURS.

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 265/12.  A STRONG MID- LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FROM NORTHERN
MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM FOR THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  AFTERWARDS... THE RIDGE
SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING MID/UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC LOW NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.  THIS
SHOULD CAUSE JOVA TO SLOW AND MOVE MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
BASICALLY A CARBON COPY OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND AGREES WITH THE
THE CONSENSUS MODELS GUNA...AND CONU.
 
 
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/0300Z 12.9N 133.4W    55 KT
 12HR VT     16/1200Z 12.8N 134.9W    60 KT
 24HR VT     17/0000Z 12.6N 137.0W    65 KT
 36HR VT     17/1200Z 12.7N 138.9W    70 KT
 48HR VT     18/0000Z 13.0N 140.5W    75 KT
 72HR VT     19/0000Z 14.0N 143.0W    70 KT
 96HR VT     20/0000Z 15.0N 145.0W    65 KT
120HR VT     21/0000Z 16.0N 147.0W    60 KT
 
 
$$
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Page last modified: Friday, 16-Sep-2005 03:10:16 UTC