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Tropical Depression NINE-E


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT THU AUG 25 2005
 
A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO.  DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS ARE 2.0 FROM SAB AND 1.5 FROM TAFB...WHICH ARE HIGH
ENOUGH TO INITIATE ADVISORIES.  CONVECTION IS STILL A LITTLE
THIN...AND THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE UNDER SOME NORTHERLY SHEAR.  IN
ADDITION...THE CYCLONE WILL BE PASSING OVER THE COLD WAKE OF
HURRICANE HILARY FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  CONSEQUENTLY...ONLY
LIMITED INTENSIFICATION IS BEING FORECAST.  BY 72 HOURS...THE
CYCLONE SHOULD BE MOVING OVER CLIMATOLOGICALLY COOLER WATERS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/10.  THE DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...AND THIS SOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM ON A WEST TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS MAINLY A BLEND OF
THE GFS AND MEDIUM BAM GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD THE GFDL INDICATES A SIGNIFICANT SLOWING AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST REDUCES THE FORWARD SPEED TO ABOUT 7 KT.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/2100Z 17.2N 106.3W    30 KT
 12HR VT     26/0600Z 17.6N 107.8W    35 KT
 24HR VT     26/1800Z 18.0N 110.0W    40 KT
 36HR VT     27/0600Z 18.5N 112.3W    40 KT
 48HR VT     27/1800Z 19.0N 114.5W    45 KT
 72HR VT     28/1800Z 19.5N 118.0W    40 KT
 96HR VT     29/1800Z 19.5N 121.0W    30 KT
120HR VT     30/1800Z 19.5N 124.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Thursday, 25-Aug-2005 20:40:14 UTC