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Hurricane HILARY


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT THU AUG 25 2005
 
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ALMOST ENTIRELY ON CONTINUITY...AS THE
CENTER IS IMPOSSIBLE TO LOCATE IN INFRARED OR NIGHT-VIS
IMAGERY...AND THERE HAVE BEEN NO RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES.  MODEL
GUIDANCE IS UNCHANGED IN GRADUALLY BENDING THE TRACK TO THE WEST IN
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK.

HILARY IS OVER 22C SSTS AND IS NO LONGER GENERATING ANY DEEP
CONVECTION.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT ASSUMES SOME WEAKENING
SINCE AN 01Z QUIKSCAT PASS THAT HAD NUMEROUS 40 KT VECTORS.  IF NO
NEW DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPS...HILARY WILL DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE LATER TODAY.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/1500Z 23.7N 120.4W    35 KT
 12HR VT     26/0000Z 24.4N 121.6W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 24HR VT     26/1200Z 25.1N 123.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     27/0000Z 25.6N 126.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     27/1200Z 26.0N 128.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     28/1200Z 26.0N 133.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     29/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Thursday, 25-Aug-2005 14:40:14 UTC