Tropical Depression EIGHT-E

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TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT FRI AUG 19 2005

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH CIRCULATION
AND CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  SINCE
THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...THE INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12
KNOTS.  THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED SOUTH OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE UNITED STATES WESTWARD ACROSS MEXICO AND
THE PACIFIC. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST AND WILL LIKELY
FORCE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT
5 DAYS. THIS IS CONSISTENT THE GFDL AND GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS AND
CLIMATOLOGY.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS AND EMBEDDED
WITHIN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS.
THEREFORE...GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST AS
SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS. THE LATTER MAKES THE
DEPRESSION A POWERFUL 100-KT HURRICANE. BY DAY 5...THE CYCLONE
SHOULD BE NEARING COOLER WATERS...SO THE INTENSIFICATION SHOULD
LEVEL OFF.  

SOME RAINBANDS WITH GUSTY WINDS COULD BE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.   
  
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/1500Z 13.2N  95.6W    25 KT
 12HR VT     20/0000Z 13.8N  97.4W    30 KT
 24HR VT     20/1200Z 14.5N  99.5W    40 KT
 36HR VT     21/0000Z 15.0N 101.5W    50 KT
 48HR VT     21/1200Z 15.5N 103.5W    60 KT
 72HR VT     22/1200Z 17.5N 107.5W    65 KT
 96HR VT     23/1200Z 19.5N 111.5W    65 KT
120HR VT     24/1200Z 21.5N 115.5W    60 KT
 
 
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