Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm GREG


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT THU AUG 11 2005
 
A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION BEGAN AT ABOUT 22Z NEAR THE ESTIMATED LOW
LEVEL CENTER LOCATION... AND THIS CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED THIS
EVENING.  EXCEPT FOR A LITTLE RESTRICTION TO THE NORTHEAST... UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED.  DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE NOW 3.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB... SO THE INTENSITY IS
INCREASED TO 45 KT.  CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION... AS VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN EVEN
MORE... AND ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK GREG SHOULD REMAIN OVER SSTS
EXCEEDING 27 CELSIUS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN
BETWEEN THE GFDL AND SHIPS SOLUTIONS.
 
GREG HAS TURNED TOWARD THE WEST... 280/8... OBVIOUSLY UNAFFECTED BY
HURRICANE FERNANDA WHICH IS TOO FAR WEST TO INDUCE GREG TOWARD THE
NORTH.  INSTEAD... GREG IS BEING STEERED BY A LOW TO MID LEVEL
RIDGE TO ITS NORTH.  THE ONLY DYNAMICAL MODELS THAT SEEM TO HAVE A
REASONABLE HANDLE ON THE INITIAL MOTION ARE THE GFDL AND GFS... SO
THESE MODELS ARE GIVEN FAR GREATER WEIGHT THAN THE OTHERS IN THE
TRACK FORECAST.  EVEN THE GFDL AND GFS FORECAST A TRACK
CONSIDERABLY SLOWER AND SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST... IN
RESPONSE TO A WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH JUST OFF THE
COAST OF MEXICO.  THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST LEANS TOWARD
THESE MODELS BUT IS KEPT NORTH OF THEM FOR THE SAKE OF CONTINUITY.
 
FORECASTER KNABB
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/0300Z 13.6N 111.9W    45 KT
 12HR VT     12/1200Z 13.8N 112.9W    55 KT
 24HR VT     13/0000Z 14.0N 114.1W    65 KT
 36HR VT     13/1200Z 14.2N 115.0W    70 KT
 48HR VT     14/0000Z 14.4N 115.9W    70 KT
 72HR VT     15/0000Z 14.5N 117.5W    65 KT
 96HR VT     16/0000Z 14.5N 120.0W    65 KT
120HR VT     17/0000Z 15.0N 123.5W    65 KT
 
 
$$
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 12-Aug-2005 03:10:09 UTC