ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT THU AUG 11 2005 A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION BEGAN AT ABOUT 22Z NEAR THE ESTIMATED LOW LEVEL CENTER LOCATION... AND THIS CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED THIS EVENING. EXCEPT FOR A LITTLE RESTRICTION TO THE NORTHEAST... UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NOW 3.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB... SO THE INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KT. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION... AS VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN EVEN MORE... AND ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK GREG SHOULD REMAIN OVER SSTS EXCEEDING 27 CELSIUS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN BETWEEN THE GFDL AND SHIPS SOLUTIONS. GREG HAS TURNED TOWARD THE WEST... 280/8... OBVIOUSLY UNAFFECTED BY HURRICANE FERNANDA WHICH IS TOO FAR WEST TO INDUCE GREG TOWARD THE NORTH. INSTEAD... GREG IS BEING STEERED BY A LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. THE ONLY DYNAMICAL MODELS THAT SEEM TO HAVE A REASONABLE HANDLE ON THE INITIAL MOTION ARE THE GFDL AND GFS... SO THESE MODELS ARE GIVEN FAR GREATER WEIGHT THAN THE OTHERS IN THE TRACK FORECAST. EVEN THE GFDL AND GFS FORECAST A TRACK CONSIDERABLY SLOWER AND SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST... IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH JUST OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THESE MODELS BUT IS KEPT NORTH OF THEM FOR THE SAKE OF CONTINUITY. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/0300Z 13.6N 111.9W 45 KT 12HR VT 12/1200Z 13.8N 112.9W 55 KT 24HR VT 13/0000Z 14.0N 114.1W 65 KT 36HR VT 13/1200Z 14.2N 115.0W 70 KT 48HR VT 14/0000Z 14.4N 115.9W 70 KT 72HR VT 15/0000Z 14.5N 117.5W 65 KT 96HR VT 16/0000Z 14.5N 120.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 17/0000Z 15.0N 123.5W 65 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 12-Aug-2005 03:10:09 UTC