Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm GREG


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT THU AUG 11 2005
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS IMPROVED A LOT SINCE YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...THE
CENTER IS TO THE NORTH AND NEAR THE EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DUE
TO SLIGHT NORTHERLY SHEAR CAUSED BY THE OUTFLOW OF FERNANDA. BASED
ON A DVORAK T-NUMBER FROM TAFB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED TO 35 KNOTS AND THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN NAMED GREG.  SINCE
THE OCEAN IS WARM AND THE SHEAR IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO HALT
STRENGHTENING...A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS INDICATED FOR THE NEXT
2 TO 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE WILL BE APPROACHING COOLER
WATERS AND WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN.

GREG APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES
AT 11 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM MEXICO WESTWARD. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 5 DAYS THE AS INDICATED BY MODELS.
HOWEVER...THE CIRCULATION OF FERNANDA SHOULD INDUCE A LITTLE BIT OF 
NORTHWARD COMPONENT TO THE MOTION AS STATED IN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH IS TO
RIGHT OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.     
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/1500Z 13.6N 110.5W    35 KT
 12HR VT     12/0000Z 14.0N 112.0W    40 KT
 24HR VT     12/1200Z 14.8N 114.0W    45 KT
 36HR VT     13/0000Z 15.5N 116.0W    50 KT
 48HR VT     13/1200Z 16.5N 117.5W    45 KT
 72HR VT     14/1200Z 19.5N 119.5W    35 KT
 96HR VT     15/1200Z 22.0N 122.0W    30 KT
120HR VT     16/1200Z 23.0N 124.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING
 
 
$$
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Thursday, 11-Aug-2005 14:40:10 UTC