Tropical Storm GREG

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TROPICAL STORM GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT THU AUG 11 2005
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS IMPROVED A LOT SINCE YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...THE
CENTER IS TO THE NORTH AND NEAR THE EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DUE
TO SLIGHT NORTHERLY SHEAR CAUSED BY THE OUTFLOW OF FERNANDA. BASED
ON A DVORAK T-NUMBER FROM TAFB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED TO 35 KNOTS AND THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN NAMED GREG.  SINCE
THE OCEAN IS WARM AND THE SHEAR IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO HALT
STRENGHTENING...A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS INDICATED FOR THE NEXT
2 TO 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE WILL BE APPROACHING COOLER
WATERS AND WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN.

GREG APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES
AT 11 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM MEXICO WESTWARD. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 5 DAYS THE AS INDICATED BY MODELS.
HOWEVER...THE CIRCULATION OF FERNANDA SHOULD INDUCE A LITTLE BIT OF 
NORTHWARD COMPONENT TO THE MOTION AS STATED IN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH IS TO
RIGHT OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.     
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/1500Z 13.6N 110.5W    35 KT
 12HR VT     12/0000Z 14.0N 112.0W    40 KT
 24HR VT     12/1200Z 14.8N 114.0W    45 KT
 36HR VT     13/0000Z 15.5N 116.0W    50 KT
 48HR VT     13/1200Z 16.5N 117.5W    45 KT
 72HR VT     14/1200Z 19.5N 119.5W    35 KT
 96HR VT     15/1200Z 22.0N 122.0W    30 KT
120HR VT     16/1200Z 23.0N 124.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING
 
 
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