Tropical Storm FERNANDA

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TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT WED AUG 10 2005
 
FERNANDA IS APPROACHING HURRICANE INTENSITY WITH TIGHTLY WRAPPED
RAINBANDS AROUND THE CDO AND A SYMMETRIC OUTFLOW PATTERN. EARLIER
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTED A SMALL EYE WAS FORMING WITH CONVECTION
NOW BURSTING NEAR THE CENTER. SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE JUST BELOW
HURRICANE INTENSITY AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS NUDGED UPWARD TO
60 KT.  COMPUTER MODELS SHOW LITTLE SHEAR IN THE PATH OF THE STORM
WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT A STEADY INTENSIFICATION UNTIL IT REACHES
COOLER WATERS BELOW 26.5C IN ABOUT 24-36 HOURS. THE EXPERIMENTAL
PROBABILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS ALMOST 4 TIMES THE MEAN SO
FERNANDA COULD INTENSIFY A BIT MORE THAN SUGGESTED BELOW.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION HAS SLOWED A LITTLE... 290/9.  THE TRACK FORECAST
SEEMS STRAIGHT-FORWARD AS THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE NORTHWEST OF FERNANDA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTACT THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.   THE RIDGE SHOULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY WHICH WILL
CAUSE SOME SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. THE GFS HAS COME INTO LINE WITH THE REST OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE AND HAS SHIFTED NORTHWARD IN THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE TRACK IS BASICALLY AN EXTENTION OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ON THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FOR THE FIRST 3 DAYS THEN
NEAR THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE.
 
FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      10/2100Z 15.7N 119.0W    60 KT
 12HR VT     11/0600Z 16.1N 120.2W    70 KT
 24HR VT     11/1800Z 16.8N 121.7W    75 KT
 36HR VT     12/0600Z 17.4N 123.0W    75 KT
 48HR VT     12/1800Z 17.8N 124.1W    70 KT
 72HR VT     13/1800Z 18.3N 126.3W    60 KT
 96HR VT     14/1800Z 18.3N 128.5W    55 KT
120HR VT     15/1800Z 18.3N 131.0W    45 KT
 
 
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