Tropical Storm FERNANDA

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TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT WED AUG 10 2005
 
FERNANDA HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING WITH IMPROVED
BANDING FEATURES AND AN INFRARED WARM SPOT OCCASIONALLY SHOWING UP
IN THE MIDDLE OF THE SMALL CDO FEATURE. A 0651Z TRMM OVERPASS ALSO
INDICATED A 10 NMI DIAMETER EYE-LIKE FEATURE IN THE LOW- AND
MID-LEVELS. BASED ON THE TRMM OVERPASS AND SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF
T3.5/55 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
INCREASED TO 55 KT.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/10.  THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING. THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF FERNANDA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
INTACT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IT IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY WHICH WILL MAINLY THE FORWARD SPEED. THE GFS STILL
APPEARS TO BE OVERDEVELOPING THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER WELL TO
THE EAST OF FERNANDA...SO LESS WEIGHT WAS PLACED ON THAT SOLUTION.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO BUT A LITTLE TO THE LEFT
OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT ONLY BECAUSE OF THE INITIAL POSITION
BEING SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS POSITION AND FORECAST TRACK.

SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT FERNANDA MAY BE
UNDERGOING A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION. THE OVERALL
SYMMETRICAL CLOUD PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT STEADY INTENSIFICATION OF
AT LEAST A NORMAL 20 KT...OR 1 DVORAK T-NUMBER...PER 24 HOURS SEEMS
REASONABLE...AND THAT IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
HOWEVER...RAPID INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT HOURS OR SO IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. BY 36 HOURS...FERNANDA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER
A GRADUALLY COOLER WATER WITH SSTS OF 24-26C...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE
GRADUAL WEAKENING.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      10/1500Z 15.6N 118.6W    55 KT
 12HR VT     11/0000Z 16.0N 119.9W    65 KT
 24HR VT     11/1200Z 16.4N 121.1W    75 KT
 36HR VT     12/0000Z 17.0N 122.5W    75 KT
 48HR VT     12/1200Z 17.6N 123.6W    65 KT
 72HR VT     13/1200Z 18.2N 125.7W    60 KT
 96HR VT     14/1200Z 18.5N 128.0W    55 KT
120HR VT     15/1200Z 18.5N 130.5W    40 KT
 
 
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