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Tropical Storm DORA


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT TUE JUL 05 2005
 
CONVECTION WAS SUFFICIENT AT 12Z FOR DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS OF
T2.5/35KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...BUT THE DEPTH OF THE CONVECTION HAS
CONTINUED TO DECREASE SINCE THEN. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS
GENEROUSLY MAINTAINED AT 35 KT... AND THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT
DORA HAS ALREADY REACHED PEAK INTENSITY AND IS BEGINNING A
WEAKENING TREND. HOWEVER...SINCE THE SYSTEM SHOULD FOR ABOUT THE
NEXT 24 HOURS REMAIN OVER SSTS GREATER THAN 26 DEGREES
CELSIUS...AND WITHIN A MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...THERE
IS STILL A CHANCE THAT DORA WILL BRIEFLY RECOVER AND PERHAPS GAIN A
LITTLE STRENGTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE TO NEAR 45 KT AT 36 HOURS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
THEREAFTER AS DORA PASSES OVER MUCH COOLER WATERS.

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 295/11...VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING ALSO REMAINS
UNCHANGED.  THE LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH
SHOULD INDUCE DORA TO CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR
ABOUT THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE DISSIPATING
TROPICAL CYCLONE AND ITS EVENTUAL REMNANT LOW SHOULD MOVE WESTWARD
WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER
THAN BUT ALONG THE SAME HEADING AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS
TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

 
FORECASTER KNABB
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      05/1500Z 18.3N 104.3W    35 KT
 12HR VT     06/0000Z 19.0N 105.7W    35 KT
 24HR VT     06/1200Z 19.7N 107.5W    40 KT
 36HR VT     07/0000Z 20.2N 109.1W    45 KT
 48HR VT     07/1200Z 20.6N 110.7W    35 KT
 72HR VT     08/1200Z 21.0N 114.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     09/1200Z 21.0N 117.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     10/1200Z 21.0N 121.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
$$
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 05-Jul-2005 15:10:04 UTC