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Tropical Storm BEATRIZ


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT THU JUN 23 2005

ALTHOUGH DVORAK T-NUMBERS WERE UP TO 3.5...CORRESPONDING TO AN
INTENSITY OF 55 KT...AT 06Z...THE COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION
SUBSEQUENTLY DIMINISHED.  MOREOVER...THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN IS
RAGGED-LOOKING WITH NO DISCERNABLE BANDING.  CONTINUITY FROM
PREVIOUS VISIBLE FIXES SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER IS NEAR THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE DENSE OVERCAST.  ASSUMING THIS...AND USING THE SHEAR
PATTERN WITH THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE...ONE OBTAINS A T-NUMBER CLOSER
TO 3.0.  CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. 
SOME STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE...AND IS ACKNOWLEDGED IN THE
FORECAST.  HOWEVER...THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION WILL BE CLOSING SOON AS THE STORM HEADS FOR
COOLER WATERS.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER
THAN THAT SHOWN BY THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE.

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/12...BASED LARGELY ON CONTINUITY. 
STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH APPROACHING SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE
BAJA PENINSULA BREAKS DOWN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THEREFORE THE TRACK FORECAST SHOWS A SLOWING OF
THE FORWARD SPEED TO A DRIFT BY THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SYSTEM COULD TURN SOUTHWARD OR
SOUTHEASTWARD IN 4-5 DAYS IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO ITS EAST.  BY THAT TIME...HOWEVER...BEATRIZ
IS EXPECTED TO BE REDUCED TO A WEAK REMNANT LOW THAT WILL BE
STEERED MAINLY BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/0900Z 16.3N 109.3W    45 KT
 12HR VT     23/1800Z 16.8N 111.0W    55 KT
 24HR VT     24/0600Z 17.4N 113.0W    55 KT
 36HR VT     24/1800Z 17.8N 114.5W    45 KT
 48HR VT     25/0600Z 17.9N 115.3W    40 KT
 72HR VT     26/0600Z 18.0N 116.0W    30 KT...DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     27/0600Z 18.0N 117.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     28/0600Z 18.0N 118.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
$$
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Page last modified: Thursday, 23-Jun-2005 08:40:02 UTC