Hurricane ADRIAN

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TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT WED MAY 18 2005

DEEP CONVECTION DIMINISHED EARLIER THIS EVENING...BUT THIS WAS
PROBABLY A DIURNAL FLUCTUATION.  RECENT IMAGES SHOW A SMALL AREA OF
DEEP CONVECTION REDEVELOPING NEAR/OVER THE ESTIMATED CENTER. 
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS BEING IMPEDED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM AND THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF SLIGHTLY
INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE STORM.  ADRIAN COULD STILL
INTENSIFY INTO A HURRICANE BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST...IF THE
SHEAR DOES NOT BECOME TOO STRONG.  ADRIAN'S LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
WILL BE SEVERELY DISRUPTED WHEN IT CROSSES OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. 
THEREAFTER...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR
DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WHICH WILL NOT
FAVOR RE-INTENSIFICATION.  IF IT SURVIVES...THE SYSTEM SHOULD LOSE
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT INTERACTS WITH AN INCREASINGLY
BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
 
THERE IS SCATTER IN THE CENTER FIXES...WHICH MAKES THE INITIAL
MOTION...065/07...RATHER UNCERTAIN.  THERE ARE NO IMPORTANT CHANGES
TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING.  A LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE
NORTH OF ADRIAN SHOULD STEER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD
WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  THE CURRENT OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS JUST SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE DURING THE
FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS.

IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT THE BIGGEST THREAT FROM ADRIAN IS HEAVY
RAIN...WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING AND POTENTIALLY
DEVASTATING MUD SLIDES OVER THE HIGHLY MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF
CENTRAL AMERICA.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/0300Z 11.2N  92.0W    50 KT
 12HR VT     19/1200Z 11.9N  91.0W    60 KT
 24HR VT     20/0000Z 13.1N  89.6W    65 KT
 36HR VT     20/1200Z 14.3N  88.0W    30 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     21/0000Z 15.8N  86.0W    30 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     22/0000Z 19.5N  81.0W    30 KT
 96HR VT     23/0000Z 23.0N  75.0W    30 KT
120HR VT     24/0000Z 26.0N  68.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
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