Tropical Storm ADRIAN

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TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT WED MAY 18 2005
 
DEEP CONVECTIVE BURSTS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING AROUND A SOMEWHAT
DISORGANIZED CENTER DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT ADRIAN RETAINS
PROMINENT BANDING FEATURES.  DVORAK DATA T NUMBERS ARE 3.0...3.0...
AND 3.5...FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET
TO 50 KNOTS BASED ON THE GRADUALLY IMPROVING BANDING PATTERN.

ADRIAN HAS BEEN WOBBLING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS.  HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL AGREE THAT A
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION SHOULD RESUME SHORTLY.  PRIMARILY DUE TO THE
RECENT MOTION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  AN ATYPICAL MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
MEXICO WILL BE THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...GRADUALLY ACCELERATING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST.  ADRIAN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY DAY 5 AS
IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE MIDDLE LATITUDE WESTERLIES NORTH OF THE
GREATER ANTILLES.

CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION BEFORE LANDFALL
ON THE PACIFIC COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA...INCLUDING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES THAT EXCEED 30 DEGREES CELSIUS.  WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT RESTRICTED TO THE WEST...VERTICAL SHEAR
OVER THE SYSTEM REMAINS WEAK.  INTERACTION WITH THE TERRAIN OF
CENTRAL AMERICA SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING BEFORE ADRIAN EMERGES OVER
THE CARIBBEAN SEA... WHERE INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR WILL NOT FAVOR
RE-INTENSIFICATION.

DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS COULD BE
NEARING THE COAST OF EL SALVADOR...AND ADRIAN COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL. THEREFORE...A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR EL SALVADOR.
 
ADRIAN ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS THAT COULD
CAUSE FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
 
FORECASTER KNABB/STEWART
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      18/2100Z 10.9N  92.5W    50 KT
 12HR VT     19/0600Z 11.6N  91.4W    60 KT
 24HR VT     19/1800Z 12.7N  90.3W    65 KT
 36HR VT     20/0600Z 14.2N  88.7W    45 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     20/1800Z 15.8N  87.0W    30 KT...OVER WATER
 72HR VT     21/1800Z 18.5N  82.5W    30 KT
 96HR VT     22/1800Z 22.0N  77.0W    30 KT
120HR VT     23/1800Z 25.0N  70.0W    30 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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