Tropical Storm ADRIAN

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TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT WED MAY 18 2005
 
THE OVERALL PATTERN IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. AN AREA
OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTER AND A WELL-DEFINED
CONVECTIVE BAND CONTINUES TO THE EAST OF THE CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST.  THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS FAIR. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE BETWEEN 35 AND 45 KNOTS. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED TO 40 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. THE SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AND ADRIAN IS
MOVING OVER A WARM OCEAN OF 30 DEGREES CELSIUS OR HIGHER. THEN...
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT ADRIAN
COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL...AS SUGGESTED BY
THE GFDL. WEAKENING DUE TO THE HIGH TERRAIN AND HIGH SHEAR IS
EXPECTED THEREAFTER. THE FORECAST KEEPS ADRIAN AS A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION BEYOND 48 HOURS.

ADRIAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 045 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS... 
EMBEDDED WITHIN A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD
MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS PATTERN IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ADRIAN SHOULD THEN
CONTINUE ON THE SAME GENERAL TRACK WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE
AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE GLOBAL MODEL
CONSENSUS. IN FACT...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING A
WEAKENED ADRIAN ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CENTRAL CUBA AND
THE BAHAMAS.

THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WINDS SHOULD BE NEARING THE COASTS OF
GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. THEREFORE...A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS.
 
ADRIAN HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
STORM IS ALREADY PRODUCING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF
THAT REGION.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      18/0900Z 10.8N  94.1W    40 KT
 12HR VT     18/1800Z 11.2N  93.5W    45 KT
 24HR VT     19/0600Z 12.0N  92.4W    50 KT
 36HR VT     19/1800Z 13.0N  91.0W    60 KT
 48HR VT     20/0600Z 14.0N  89.0W    30 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     21/0600Z 17.0N  85.0W    30 KT...BACK OVER WATER
 96HR VT     22/0600Z 20.0N  81.0W    30 KT
120HR VT     23/0600Z 23.5N  74.5W    30 KT
 
 
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