ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT WED MAY 18 2005 THE OVERALL PATTERN IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTER AND A WELL-DEFINED CONVECTIVE BAND CONTINUES TO THE EAST OF THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS FAIR. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE BETWEEN 35 AND 45 KNOTS. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED TO 40 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AND ADRIAN IS MOVING OVER A WARM OCEAN OF 30 DEGREES CELSIUS OR HIGHER. THEN... GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT ADRIAN COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL...AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFDL. WEAKENING DUE TO THE HIGH TERRAIN AND HIGH SHEAR IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER. THE FORECAST KEEPS ADRIAN AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEYOND 48 HOURS. ADRIAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 045 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS... EMBEDDED WITHIN A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ADRIAN SHOULD THEN CONTINUE ON THE SAME GENERAL TRACK WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. IN FACT...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING A WEAKENED ADRIAN ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CENTRAL CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WINDS SHOULD BE NEARING THE COASTS OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. THEREFORE...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS. ADRIAN HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE STORM IS ALREADY PRODUCING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THAT REGION. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/0900Z 10.8N 94.1W 40 KT 12HR VT 18/1800Z 11.2N 93.5W 45 KT 24HR VT 19/0600Z 12.0N 92.4W 50 KT 36HR VT 19/1800Z 13.0N 91.0W 60 KT 48HR VT 20/0600Z 14.0N 89.0W 30 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 21/0600Z 17.0N 85.0W 30 KT...BACK OVER WATER 96HR VT 22/0600Z 20.0N 81.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 23/0600Z 23.5N 74.5W 30 KT $$ NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Wednesday, 18-May-2005 08:40:01 UTC