Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Depression ONE-E


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT TUE MAY 17 2005

THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF GUATEMALA AND EL
SALVADOR HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE DAY.  SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KT...25 KT...AND 25 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...
AND AFWA INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E HAS FORMED OVER
THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.  IN ADDITION TO SATELLITE
DATA... SHIP PFSK LOCATED NEAR THE CENTER REPORTED A PRESSURE OF
1006.4 MB... ALONG WITH 14 FT SEAS THAT CORRESPOND TO 25-30 KT
WINDS.  THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 070/4.  ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...AND THE
GFDL MODEL...INDICATE AN ATYPICAL NORTHEASTWARD MOTION TOWARD
CENTRAL AMERICA FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.  SINCE 1966... ONLY FOUR
SYSTEMS HAVE MADE LANDALL IN GUATEMALA OR EL SALVADOR IN ANY
MONTH... WITH ONLY ONE LANDFALLING DEPRESSION IN THE MONTH OF MAY. 
HOWEVER... NO TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS MADE LANDFALL THIS EARLY IN MAY. 
WHILE NOT CLIMATOLOGICAL... ALL OF THE MODELS AGREE ON DEVELOPING A
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER MEXICO AND TO THE WEST OF THE
CYCLONE.  THIS SHOULD PRODUCE DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING
FLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH SHOULD MOVE THE SYSTEM TOWARD
CENTRAL AMERICA.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK... LANDFALL COULD OCCUR
ALONG THE GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR COASTS IN 2-3 DAYS.  IF THE
CYCLONE SURVIVES THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA... IT COULD
EMERGE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BY DAY 4.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL
AND GFDL MODELS.

ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENTS ARE FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST
STEADY INTENSIFICATION.  AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
DEPRESSION NORTHEASTWARD TO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...WHICH IS PRODUCING
FAVORABLE OUTFLOW AND WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR.  THE SHIPS MODEL ONLY
STRENGTHENS THE CYCLONE TO 55 KT IN 48 HOURS... BUT THIS IS LARGELY
DUE TO THE UNUSUAL EASTWARD MOTION WHICH GENERALLY DOES NOT FAVOR
INTENSIFICATION.  IN CONTRAST... THE GFDL BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO 115
KT IN 48 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE
SHIPS MODEL... AND THE CYCLONE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN 60 HOURS
BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL.
 
FORECASTER KNABB/STEWART
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      17/2100Z  9.9N  95.0W    30 KT
 12HR VT     18/0600Z 10.2N  94.3W    35 KT
 24HR VT     18/1800Z 10.7N  93.5W    40 KT
 36HR VT     19/0600Z 11.5N  92.4W    50 KT
 48HR VT     19/1800Z 12.7N  91.2W    60 KT
 72HR VT     20/1800Z 16.0N  87.0W    30 KT
 96HR VT     21/1800Z 20.0N  82.0W    30 KT
120HR VT     22/1800Z 23.0N  74.0W    30 KT
 
 
$$
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-May-2005 20:45:25 UTC