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Tropical Storm ZETA


ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST MON JAN 02 2006
 
ZETA IS STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY. IT APPEARS THAT EVERY PULSE OF
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS THAT HAS TRIED TO APPROACH ZETA BECOMES
DIVERTED AWAY FROM THE CYCLONE. CONSEQUENTLY...THE CYCLONE HAS NOT
BECOME SHEARED. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CONVECTION IS OVER
THE CENTER AND THE OUTFLOW HAS EXPANDED WESTWARD. BOTH SUBJECTIVE
AND OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED TODAY. IN ADDITION...THE
LATEST SSMI IMAGE SHOW A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION RESEMBLING AN
EYEWALL...BUT NOT QUITE. INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING INCREASED TO 50
KNOTS AND I COULD GO EVEN HIGHER IF THE LATEST QUIKSCAT IS USED. 

A BRAVO FOR THE GFDL. IT HAS BEEN THE ONLY MODEL WHICH HAS KEPT ZETA
ALIVE DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS AND IN FACT...THE LATEST RUN MAKES
IT A 79-KNOT HURRICANE AS A SHARP UPPER-TROUGH APPROACHES THE
HURRICANE. I WAS TEMPTED TO FOLLOW THE GFDL TREND BUT I HESITATED
SINCE I AM NOT READY FOR SUCH AGGRESSIVE FORECAST YET GIVEN THE
APPROACHING HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT FORECAST BY EVERY OTHER MODEL.  ALL
I AM DOING IN THE OFFICIAL FOREAST IS PROLONGING THE LIFE OF A
GRADUALLY WEAKENING ZETA...BASED ON CONTINUITY.   

ZETA HAS BEEN MOVING LITTLE OR DRIFTING WESTWARD DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS. A RATHER STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NORTH
ZETA.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER THE CYCLONE SLOWLY
WESTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION IN 3 OR 4 DAYS. 
 
FORECASTER AVILA
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/0300Z 23.5N  41.2W    50 KT
 12HR VT     03/1200Z 23.4N  41.8W    45 KT
 24HR VT     04/0000Z 23.3N  42.7W    30 KT
 36HR VT     04/1200Z 23.2N  43.8W    25 KT
 48HR VT     05/0000Z 23.5N  45.0W    25 KT
 72HR VT     06/0000Z 25.0N  46.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     07/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 03-Jan-2006 16:54:16 UTC