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Tropical Storm ZETA


ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST MON JAN 02 2006

ALTHOUGH A WEAKENING TREND SEEMED IMMINENT EARLIER TODAY...AS THE
LOW-CLOUD CENTER STARTED TO BECOME EXPOSED...A NEW BURST OF DEEP
CONVECTION SUBSEQUENTLY REFORMED NEAR THE CENTER.  ZETA HAS THUS
FAR REFUSED TO WEAKEN IN...WHAT APPEARS TO BE...A STRONGLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT.  CLEARLY WE NEED AN INCREASED UNDERSTANDING OF
INTENSITY CHANGE FOR SYSTEMS IN THE SUBTROPICS SUCH AS
ZETA...EPSILON...VINCE...ETC.  NOTWITHSTANDING... GLOBAL MODEL
FORECASTS INDICATE EVEN STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE STORM
WITHIN 1-2 DAYS AND IT IS HARD TO CONCEIVE THAT A TROPICAL CYCLONE
WILL BE ABLE TO SURVIVE FOR VERY LONG IN SUCH A HOSTILE DYNAMICAL
ENVIRONMENT.  THEREFORE I HAVE NOT BACKED OFF ON THE FORECAST OF
WEAKENING.  OF COURSE...ZETA MAY HAVE OTHER IDEAS.

VISIBLE FIXES INDICATE A MOTION NEAR 250/6.  AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS
IT SHOULD BE STEERED INCREASINGLY BY THE LOWER-LEVEL FLOW...AND
MOVE ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ALSO A REASONABLE BLEND OF THE
GFS...U.K. MET...NOGAPS...AND SHALLOW BAM SOLUTIONS.  THIS IS
BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/2100Z 23.5N  41.1W    45 KT
 12HR VT     03/0600Z 23.1N  42.0W    35 KT
 24HR VT     03/1800Z 23.0N  43.1W    30 KT
 36HR VT     04/0600Z 23.0N  44.3W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     04/1800Z 23.0N  45.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     05/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 03-Jan-2006 16:54:16 UTC