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Hurricane EPSILON


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER  36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM EST THU DEC 08 2005
 
EPSILON IS WELL ON ITS WAY TO FINALLY ACHIEVING TROPICAL DEPRESSION
STATUS.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS COMPLETELY EXPOSED.  THE DEPTH AND
EXTENT OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN RAPIDLY DECREASING THIS MORNING AND
ONLY REMAINS IN A VERY LIMITED AREA DOWNSHEAR OR SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER.  THE INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 35 KT BASED ON A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE VARIOUS 06Z DVORAK T AND CI NUMBERS... AND THE FACT
THAT SINCE THEN THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS ALMOST DISAPPEARED.  THE
CONVECTION IS DYING OFF SO FAST THAT IT WILL PROBABLY BE COMPLETELY
GONE BY THE EFFECTIVE TIME OF THIS ADVISORY.
 
THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL STORM CONTINUES MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD BUT
HAS SLOWED DOWN OVERNIGHT.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 215/7
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND THE MOST RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES
SUGGEST IT MIGHT BE EVEN SLOWER THAN THAT.  EPSILON WILL SOON BE A
REMNANT LOW STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THE LOW WILL PROBABLY
NOT MOVE ALL THAT MUCH DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS SINCE THE
LOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW IS COLLAPSING AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.  IF THE REMANT LOW STILL EXISTS
BEYOND 24 HOURS... IT WILL LIKELY BE ABSORBED INTO THE FRONTAL
ZONE.  SEVERAL MODELS FORECAST A NEW EXTRATROPICAL LOW TO DEVELOP
ALONG THAT FRONT AFTER IT ABSORBS EPSILON... BUT THAT WOULD HAVE A
GOOD CHANCE OF HAPPENING EVEN WITHOUT THE REMANTS OF EPSILON.
 
 
FORECASTER KNABB
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      08/0900Z 27.1N  39.6W    35 KT
 12HR VT     08/1800Z 26.8N  39.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     09/0600Z 26.7N  38.9W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     09/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL ZONE
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Thursday, 08-Dec-2005 09:10:25 UTC