Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane EPSILON


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER  32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM EST WED DEC 07 2005
 
THE END IS IN SIGHT...YES...BUT NOT QUITE YET. I THOUGHT I WAS GOING
TO FIND A WEAKENING SYSTEM AND INSTEAD I FOUND THAT EPSILON IS
STILL A HURRICANE. AS IT HAS DONE EVERY MORNING...THE CONVECTION
HAS REDEVELOPED AROUND THE LARGE AND DISTINCT EYE....KICKING THE
DVORAK T-NUMBERS BACK UP AGAIN. ALL AGENCIES SUPPORT HURRICANE
INTENSITY. THE HURRICANE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED WITHIN THE REGION OF
LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AXIS OF AN UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER...
THE WEAKENING PROCESS HAS TO BEGIN VERY SOON SINCE STRONG
HIGH-LEVEL WINDS FROM THE SAME TROUGH ARE ALREADY HEADING TOWARD
THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE. WITH THIS UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN...I
HAVE NO OPTION BUT TO FORECAST WEAKENING AT A FAST PACE.
NEVERTHERELESS...THERE IS VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY
FORECAST.

EPSILON IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 220 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND A DEVELOPING
TROUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST. ACCORDING TO THE GLOBAL MODELS...THIS
STEERING PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL EPSILON BECOMES
ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN 3 DAYS. 
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      07/0900Z 29.8N  36.3W    65 KT
 12HR VT     07/1800Z 28.7N  37.3W    55 KT
 24HR VT     08/0600Z 27.7N  38.5W    45 KT
 36HR VT     08/1800Z 26.5N  39.5W    30 KT
 48HR VT     09/0600Z 26.0N  40.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     10/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM 
 
$$
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Wednesday, 07-Dec-2005 08:40:26 UTC