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Hurricane EPSILON


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER  31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST TUE DEC 06 2005
 
THE END IS IN SIGHT.  IT REALLY REALLY IS.  BUT IN THE MEANTIME...
EPSILON CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN HURRICANE STATUS.  HI-RES DATA FROM
THE 2037Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED SOME VERY REASONABLE-LOOKING 60 KT
VECTORS IN MUCH OF THE EYEWALL...AND ALLOWING FOR THE HORIZONTAL
RESOLUTION OF THE INSTRUMENT...IT IS LIKELY THAT THERE ARE STILL
SOME 65 KT WINDS PRESENT IN THE CIRCULATION.  DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE ALSO STILL 65 KT.  WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...HOWEVER...SHOWS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEGINNING TO IMPINGE
ON AND DISRUPT THE OUTFLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.  THE STRONG
FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT MOVED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS MORNING IS
SWEEPING EASTWARD...AND VERY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLIES
AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO OVERTAKE EPSILON IN ABOUT 24
HOURS.  THE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
SHEAR AWAY THE CONVECTION...LEAVING EPSILON AS A REMNANT LOW TO BE
ABSORBED WHEN THE SURFACE FRONT ARRIVES IN 48 TO 72 HOURS. 

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 215/10...WITH STEERING PROVIDED BY A DEEP
LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CYCLONE. THIS GENERAL
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 36 HOURS OR SO UNTIL THE CYCLONE
SHEARS OFF...AT WHICH POINT THE MOTION IS LESS CERTAIN. STEERING
CURRENTS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT ARE LIKELY TO BE
WEAKER...SO LITTLE MOTION IS SHOWN JUST PRIOR TO ABSORPTION BY THE
FRONT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
AND IS CLOSEST TO THE GFS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      07/0300Z 30.3N  35.3W    65 KT
 12HR VT     07/1200Z 29.1N  36.4W    60 KT
 24HR VT     08/0000Z 27.5N  37.5W    55 KT
 36HR VT     08/1200Z 26.5N  38.4W    35 KT
 48HR VT     09/0000Z 26.0N  38.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     10/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM
 
 
$$
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 07-Dec-2005 02:40:17 UTC