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Hurricane EPSILON


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM EST TUE DEC 06 2005
 
EPSILON APPEARS TO STILL BE A HURRICANE... BUT JUST BARELY.  A
QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT ABOUT 08Z ESTIMATED WINDS AS STRONG AS 55 KT
TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER AND JUST OUTSIDE OF THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION... SO 65 KT WINDS WERE PROBABLY OCCURRING WITHIN THE
CONVECTION AT THAT TIME.  THE CLOUD PATTERN DETERIORATED A LITTLE
UNTIL 12Z WHEN DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 55-65 KT.  JUST WHEN
I WAS TEMPTED TO REDUCE THE INTENSITY TO 60 KT... EPSILON STARTED
TO AGAIN WRAP SOME CONVECTIVE BANDS OF MODEST DEPTH TIGHTLY AROUND
THE CENTER... SO IT REMAINS A 65-KT HURRICANE.  HOWEVER... THE
OUTFLOW PATTERN IS ELONGATING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WITHIN AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD... SO THE SHEAR WILL NOT BE WEAK FOR
TOO MUCH LONGER.  EPSILON CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH AT
ABOUT 8 KT... ALTHOUGH RECENTLY THERE IS THE HINT THAT THE EXPECTED
TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST IS BEGINNING.

A BUILDING DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF EPSILON IS
FORECAST BY ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TO FORCE THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE SOUTHWESTWARD LATER TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST 48 HOURS.  ON
THAT TRACK EPSILON WILL STILL BE BENEATH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS.  ONLY GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING
THAT PERIOD AS THE OUTFLOW BECOMES MORE RESTRICTED.  ONCE EPSILON
EMERGES WEST OF THE EASTWARD-MOVING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH... STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR SHOULD INDUCE A MORE STEADY DECLINE.  THE
OFFICIAL TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY... CALLING FOR EPSILON TO FALL BELOW TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.  THE TRACK OF THE EVENTUAL REMNANT LOW
IS A BIT UNCERTAIN SINCE SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE IT COULD BE
DRAWN BACK NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT... INSTEAD OF THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SCENARIO OF A CONTINUED SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION.
 
 
FORECASTER KNABB
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      06/1500Z 31.9N  33.8W    65 KT
 12HR VT     07/0000Z 30.5N  34.8W    55 KT
 24HR VT     07/1200Z 28.9N  36.5W    50 KT
 36HR VT     08/0000Z 27.6N  37.9W    40 KT
 48HR VT     08/1200Z 26.4N  39.0W    30 KT
 72HR VT     09/1200Z 25.0N  40.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     10/1200Z 23.5N  40.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     11/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 06-Dec-2005 15:10:15 UTC