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Hurricane EPSILON


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST MON DEC 05 2005
 
WE HAVE SAID THIS BEFORE AT TIMES DURING THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS...
ONLY TO HAVE EPSILON MAKE A COMEBACK THE FOLLOWING MORNING... BUT
EPSILON REALLY DOES NOT APPEAR AS STRONG THIS EVENING AS IT DID
THIS AFTERNOON.  DEEP CONVECTION HAS LOST SOME CONSOLIDATION AND
THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE ELONGATED NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE SIMILAR TO BEFORE...
MOSTLY 65 KT WITH ANOTHER AT 77 KT... BUT NOW ALL OF THE T-NUMBERS
CORRESPOND TO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 65 KT.  AFTER MOVING
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD FOR MOST OF THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS... EPSILON
NOW SEEMS TO HAVE BEGUN THE TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH.  THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS A VERY UNCERTAIN 135/3... AND VERY RECENTLY IT
MIGHT NOT HAVE MOVED MUCH AT ALL.

THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ALL AGREE EPSILON WILL BEGIN MOVING SOUTHWARD
VERY SOON AND THEN MOVE GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE BUILDS TO ITS WEST.  ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THE APPARENT TURN IN PROGRESS... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GENERALLY
FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO WITH CONFIDENCE.  OCEAN TEMPERATURES STEADILY
INCREASE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK... BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT
LIKELY COOPERATE IN PROVIDING AN ENVIRONMENT IN WHICH EPSILON CAN
SURVIVE VERY LONG AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  SOON EPSILON WILL NO
LONGER BE EMBEDDED IN THE DEEP WESTERLY STEERING CURRENT OF THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS... AND BY ABOUT 36 HOURS IT WILL PROBABLY BEGIN
WEAKENING FAIRLY QUICKLY.  BY THAT TIME STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
TO THE WEST OF A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHOULD SHEAR
EPSILON... TO PIECES IF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL DEPICTIONS OF THE
CIRCULATION ARE ANY INDICATION.  EVEN THE GFDL FORECASTS THE
REMNANT LOW TO DISSIPATE BY 120 HOURS.  THE SHIPS GUIDANCE HAS NOT
PERFORMED WELL DURING EPSILON THUS FAR... IN PART DUE TO A LACK OF
MANY SYSTEMS LIKE THIS IN THE DEVELOPMENTAL DATABASE.  SHIPS
CONTINUES TO INSIST ON STEADY WEAKENING... WHICH STILL MIGHT NOT
HAPPEN DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS OR SO... BUT SHIPS PROBABLY HAS
THE RIGHT IDEA BEGINNING IN ABOUT 36 HOURS ONCE THE SHEAR REALLY
KICKS IN.  SO EPSILON'S DAYS APPEAR TO BE NUMBERED... WITH THAT
NUMBER PROBABLY BEING LESS THAN FIVE... AND THE NEW OFFICIAL
FORECAST ONLY HOLDS ON TO A REMANT LOW THROUGH 96 HOURS.  OTHERWISE
THE PACE OF WEAKENING IN THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
 
FORECASTER KNABB
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      06/0300Z 33.3N  33.8W    65 KT
 12HR VT     06/1200Z 32.3N  33.7W    60 KT
 24HR VT     07/0000Z 30.7N  34.5W    55 KT
 36HR VT     07/1200Z 29.3N  35.7W    40 KT
 48HR VT     08/0000Z 27.8N  37.0W    30 KT
 72HR VT     09/0000Z 25.0N  39.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     10/0000Z 22.5N  41.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     11/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 06-Dec-2005 03:10:15 UTC