Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane EPSILON


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST MON DEC 05 2005
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE REMARKABLY WELL-ORGANIZED FOR A
HURRICANE AT SUCH HIGH LATITUDE IN DECEMBER. IT HAS A WELL-DEFINED
LARGE EYE SURROUNDED BY A RING OF CONVECTION...AND THE OUTFLOW IS
ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS.  EPSILON RESEMBLES ONE OF THESE
ANNULAR HURRICANES OR "TRUCK TIRE PATTERN"  DESCRIBED IN THE
SCIENTIFIC LITERATURE. ALTHOUGH THIS CLASSIFICATION IS FOR
HURRICANES IN THE DEEP TROPICS...EPSILON HAS INDEED MAINTAINED ITS
INTENSITY...MORE THAN ANTICIPATED...LIKE THESE TYPE OF ANNULAR
HURRICANES. DVORAK ESTIMATES SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70
KNOTS. ONLY A SLIGHT DECREASE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIATED DURING THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...EPSILON SHOULD WEAKEN AT A FASTER
PACE AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW AS IT MOVES SOUTHWESTWARD AND
ENCOUNTERS STRONGER SHEAR. ACCORDING TO THE SHIPS MODEL...THE 200
MB TEMPERATURE HAS BEEN THE ONLY ATMOSPHERIC PARAMETER CONTRIBUTING
POSITIVELY TO THE INTENSITY OF EPSILON FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. 

EPSILON IS ALREADY SLOWING DOWN...APPARENTLY GETTING READY TO MAKE
THE SOUTHWARD TURN...MUCH ANTICIPATED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS. LATEST
GUIDANCE SHOWS A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE CYCLONE MOVES TO
SOUTHWEST COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...AND THE GFDL TURNS THE
CYCLONE EASTWARD AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST DECREASED THE FORWARD SPEED BEYOND 72 HOURS TO COMPENSATE
FOR THE EASTWARD COMPONENT SUGGESTED BY THE GFDL. BY THEN EPSILON
SHOULD BE A REMNANT LOW...WE WOULD LIKE.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      05/2100Z 33.7N  34.4W    70 KT
 12HR VT     06/0600Z 33.5N  33.9W    65 KT
 24HR VT     06/1800Z 32.0N  34.5W    60 KT
 36HR VT     07/0600Z 30.5N  35.5W    45 KT
 48HR VT     07/1800Z 29.0N  36.5W    30 KT
 72HR VT     08/1800Z 26.1N  39.1W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     09/1800Z 24.0N  41.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     10/1800Z 22.5N  42.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
$$
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 05-Dec-2005 20:40:15 UTC