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Hurricane EPSILON


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA
HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER  19...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST SAT DEC 03 2005

...CORRECTED FIRST PARAGRAPH...
 
EPSILON MAINTAINS A RAGGED 20 N MI WIDE EYE... BUT THE CONVECTION
SEEMS TO BE THINNING OUT A LITTLE... ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CENTER. 
THE ONLY CONVECTIVE TOPS COLDER THAN -50C ARE IN THE NORTHWESTERN
SEMICIRCLE.  THE CONVECTION DOES NOT APPEAR ALL THAT VIGOROUS...
AND A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AROUND 22Z DID NOT REVEAL ANY WINDS
STRONGER THAN 50 KT IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION THAT IT
SAMPLED.  NEVERTHELESS... 00Z DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGED FROM 55 TO 75
KT... ALTHOUGH THE DATA T NUMBERS HAVE ALL FALLEN TO 4.0 OR LESS. 
EPSILON MIGHT OR MIGHT NOT STILL BE A HURRICANE... BUT IN ANY CASE
IT LIKELY WILL NOT BE ONE ON SUNDAY... SINCE IT IS HEADED FOR EVEN
COOLER WATERS WHILE DRIER AIR AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER WESTERLIES ARE
NOT FAR BEHIND.  THE STEADY WEAKENING INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A LITTLE
MORE RAPID THAT FORECAST BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.  EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION IS FORECAST AT ABOUT 36 HOURS SINCE EPSILON WILL BE OVER
SUB-22C WATERS AND WILL PROBABLY BECOME ENTANGLED IN THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF A BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL
SYSTEM TO THE NORTH.

EVEN THOUGH EPSILON TOOK A SLIGHT JOG TO THE SOUTH EARLIER THIS
EVENING... THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS STILL TOWARD THE EAST OR
095/11.  THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 48 HOURS
UNTIL A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE BEGINS TO DEVELOP WEST OF EPSILON AS
ANTICIPATED BY ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.  SINCE EPSILON IS
EXPECTED TO BE WEAKENING BY THAT TIME... IT SHOULD COME UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE LOWER- TO MIDDLE-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC THAT SHOULD PULL EPSILON SOUTHWESTWARD... AS
FORECAST UNANIMOUSLY BY THE MODELS.  STRONG WIND SHEAR SHOULD STRIP
EXTRATROPICAL EPSILON OF ANY REMAINING CONVECTION... LEAVING A
REMNANT LOW TO SWEEP WESTWARD IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
 
FORECASTER KNABB
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/0300Z 34.3N  41.6W    65 KT
 12HR VT     04/1200Z 34.2N  39.7W    55 KT
 24HR VT     05/0000Z 34.1N  37.4W    45 KT
 36HR VT     05/1200Z 33.8N  35.3W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     06/0000Z 33.3N  33.5W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     07/0000Z 30.5N  33.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     08/0000Z 27.0N  36.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     09/0000Z 23.5N  40.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Sunday, 04-Dec-2005 03:10:15 UTC