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Hurricane EPSILON


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM EST SAT DEC 03 2005
 
EPSILON CONSISTS OF A NARROW RING OF MODERATE CONVECTION...A LARGE
RAGGED EYE AND LIMITED OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 65
KNOTS BASED ON BOTH DVORAK AND AMSU ESTIMATES. EPSILON IS A
TENACIOUS TROPICAL CYCLONE WHICH HAS MAINTAINED HURRICANE INTENSITY
OVER COOL WATERS AND APPARENT UNFAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS.
ACCORDING TO THE SHIPS MODEL...THE ONLY PARAMETER WHICH IS
CONTRIBUTING POSITIVELY TO THE INTENSITY IS THE 200 MB TEMPERATURE.
MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE BRINGING STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY
WINDS OVER THE CYCLONE SOON. THESE WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH EVEN
COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD
RESULT IN WEAKENING AND EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. HOWEVER...WE HAVE
BEEN EXPECTING SUCH TRANSITION BUT THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS OF THIS
HAPPENING YET.
 
EPSILON IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST AT 10 KNOTS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MIDLATITUDE FLOW. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UK
MODEL...THE REST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP A BLOCKING HIGH TO
THE NORTH OF EPSILON AND ANOTHER LARGE LOW TO THE SOUTH. THIS
PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST A SLOW MOTION BEYOND 48 HOURS WITH A TURN TO
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. BY
THEN...EPSILON IS FORECAST TO HAVE WEAKENED AND I WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF IT HAS BECOME A REMNANT LOW.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/1500Z 34.5N  44.4W    65 KT
 12HR VT     04/0000Z 34.5N  42.6W    60 KT
 24HR VT     04/1200Z 34.5N  40.0W    55 KT
 36HR VT     05/0000Z 34.5N  37.5W    50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     05/1200Z 34.5N  35.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     06/1200Z 34.0N  34.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     07/1200Z 33.0N  33.5W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     08/1200Z 31.0N  34.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
$$
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Page last modified: Saturday, 03-Dec-2005 14:55:17 UTC