ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM EST SAT DEC 03 2005 EPSILON CONSISTS OF A NARROW RING OF MODERATE CONVECTION...A LARGE RAGGED EYE AND LIMITED OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON BOTH DVORAK AND AMSU ESTIMATES. EPSILON IS A TENACIOUS TROPICAL CYCLONE WHICH HAS MAINTAINED HURRICANE INTENSITY OVER COOL WATERS AND APPARENT UNFAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS. ACCORDING TO THE SHIPS MODEL...THE ONLY PARAMETER WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING POSITIVELY TO THE INTENSITY IS THE 200 MB TEMPERATURE. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE BRINGING STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS OVER THE CYCLONE SOON. THESE WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH EVEN COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING AND EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. HOWEVER...WE HAVE BEEN EXPECTING SUCH TRANSITION BUT THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS OF THIS HAPPENING YET. EPSILON IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST AT 10 KNOTS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE FLOW. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UK MODEL...THE REST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP A BLOCKING HIGH TO THE NORTH OF EPSILON AND ANOTHER LARGE LOW TO THE SOUTH. THIS PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST A SLOW MOTION BEYOND 48 HOURS WITH A TURN TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. BY THEN...EPSILON IS FORECAST TO HAVE WEAKENED AND I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF IT HAS BECOME A REMNANT LOW. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/1500Z 34.5N 44.4W 65 KT 12HR VT 04/0000Z 34.5N 42.6W 60 KT 24HR VT 04/1200Z 34.5N 40.0W 55 KT 36HR VT 05/0000Z 34.5N 37.5W 50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 05/1200Z 34.5N 35.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 06/1200Z 34.0N 34.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 07/1200Z 33.0N 33.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 08/1200Z 31.0N 34.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Saturday, 03-Dec-2005 14:55:17 GMT