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Hurricane EPSILON


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST FRI DEC 02 2005
 
EPSILON HAS MAINTAINED A 25 NMI DIAMETER EYE AND THE OUTFLOW
PATTERN HAS REMAINED WELL-ESTABLISHED. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES REMAIN AT T4.0/65 FROM TAFB AND SAB... AND A 02/0701Z
AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM UW-CIMSS WAS 982 MB/70 KT. BASED ON
THIS INFORMATION... EPSILON REMAINS A 65-KT HURRICANE... ALTHOUGH
IT COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER. 
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 050/10 KT. SATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES
INDICATE EPSILON HAS REMAINED ON TRACK. UNFORTUNATELY... THAT CAN
NOT BE SAID FOR THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE... WHICH HAS MADE A HUGE
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. THE RESULT IS THAT THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE
LATEST INTERPOLATED FORECAST TRACK ARE BOTH NORTH OF THE GUIDANCE
SUITE. OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS...HOWEVER... THE MODELS HAVE HAD A
TENDENCY TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY AND THEN SHIFT BACK
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WAS
ONLY SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD AND IS ALONG THE EXTREME NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND CLOSE TO THE UKMET... ECMWF...
AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS... WHICH HAVE BEEN THE STEADIEST MODELS.
HOPEFULLY THE SOUTHWARD TRACK AFTER 72 HOURS THAT THE GFS...GFS
ENSEMBLE... NOGAPS... AND GFDN MODELS ARE FORECASTING WILL NOT
MATERIALIZE SO THE 2005 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON CAN FINALLY END.

EPSILON HAS LIKELY REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY... AND STEADY
WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE
BEGINS TO MOVE OVER SUB-20C SSTS AND GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS OVER TO
A SIGNIFICANT EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN 36-48 HOURS.
 
GOING BACK TO 1851... HISTORICAL RECORDS INDICATE EPSILON IS ONLY
THE FIFTH HURRICANE TO FORM DURING THE MONTH OF DECEMBER. OTHER
DECEMBER HURRICANES ARE... UNNAMED 1887... UNNAMED 1925... ALICE #2
IN 1954... AND LILI 1984. EPSILON IS ALSO ONLY THE SIXTH HURRICANE
TO EVER OCCUR DURING DECEMBER... INCLUDING UNNAMED 1887... UNNAMED
1925... ALICE #2 IN 1954... LILI 1984... AND NICOLE 1998.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/2100Z 34.2N  47.4W    65 KT
 12HR VT     03/0600Z 35.1N  45.9W    60 KT
 24HR VT     03/1800Z 36.1N  43.9W    55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     04/0600Z 37.2N  41.7W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     04/1800Z 38.4N  39.3W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     05/1800Z 40.5N  35.5W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     06/1800Z 42.5N  31.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     07/1800Z 44.0N  28.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Dec-2005 20:40:15 UTC