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Tropical Storm EPSILON


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM EST THU DEC 01 2005
 
OUTER CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES HAVE IMPROVED AND A RAGGED BANDING
EYE FEATURE APPEARS TO TRYING TO DEVELOP...AGAIN. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS AT 55 KT BASED A DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATE IS T3.5/55 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. HOWEVER... A
01/0944Z UW-CIMSS AMSU ESTIMATE INDICATED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 985
MB AND 61 KT WINDS. THE AMSU ESTIMATES ARE LIKELY A LITTLE TOO
INTENSE FOR A SHALLOW HYBRID-TYPE TROPICAL CYCLONE LIKE EPSILON...
BUT THE EYE FEATURE NOTED IN CONVENTIONAL AND PASSIVE MICROWAVE
SATELLITE IMAGERY ARGUE FOR KEEPING THE INTENSITY HIGHER THAN THE
45-50 KT WIND VECTORS NOTED IN A 01/0847Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 050/10... ALTHOUGH EPSILON HAS BEEN
MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KT OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS THAT EPSILON
WILL MOVE IN A GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD DIRECTION. AFTER THAT...
HOWEVER... THE MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY INTO TWO CAMPS... WITH
THE GFDL... GFS... AND CANADIAN MODELS RAPIDLY ACCELERATING EPSILON
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST... WHEREAS THE UKMET...NOGAPS...GFDN...
AND ECMWF MOVE THE CYCLONE SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEAST AND EASTWARD
TOWARD THE AZORES. IN FACT... BY 120 HOURS THE NOGAPS AND UKMET
MODELS STALL EPSILON NEAR 30N 40W. GIVEN THAT THE MID-LEVEL FLOW IS
FORECAST TO BECOME MORE ZONAL BY ALL THE MODELS... THE OFFICIAL
TRACK REMAINS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY AND DIFFICULTY IN PREDICTING EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION...AND THE RESULTANT INTERACTION WITH THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES.

THE BANDING EYE FEATURE AND THE RECENT RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF A SMALL
BUT WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CENTER SUGGEST
THE CYCLONE COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR
SO... AND IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT EPSILON COULD BRIEFLY REACH
HURRICANE STRENGTH. HOWEVER... BY 24 HOURS THE EFFECTS OF COOLER
WATER AND INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD GRADUALLY INDUCE SLOW
BUT STEADY WEAKENING... AND EPSILON IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL BY 48 HOURS... BARRING ANY SOUTHWARD MOTION OVER
WARMER WATER THAT WOULD PROLONG BOTH THE LIFETIME OF EPSILON AND
THE 2005 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/1500Z 31.2N  51.6W    55 KT
 12HR VT     02/0000Z 32.1N  50.3W    55 KT
 24HR VT     02/1200Z 33.4N  48.5W    50 KT
 36HR VT     03/0000Z 34.7N  46.7W    50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     03/1200Z 35.6N  45.1W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     04/1200Z 37.5N  41.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     05/1200Z 39.5N  36.5W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     06/1200Z 41.5N  32.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Thursday, 01-Dec-2005 14:55:17 UTC