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Tropical Storm EPSILON


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM EST THU DEC 01 2005
 
SOME GRADUAL COOLING OF THE CLOUD TOPS HAS CONTINUED DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS IN THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN SEMICIRCLES... BUT THE DEEP
CONVECTION HAS DECREASED TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER.
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 45 TO 55 KT... WITH THE
WEAKER END OF THIS RANGE DERIVED USING THE CURVED BAND PATTERN AND
THE HIGHER END USING AN EYE PATTERN.  SINCE THE DEEP CONVECTION IS
NOT WRAPPING ALL THE WAY AROUND THE CENTER... THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD... BUT ONLY TO 55 KT.  THE NEXT
QUIKSCAT OVERPASS IS OCCURRING AT THIS HOUR... AND ONCE THAT DATA
ARRIVES IT MIGHT HELP CLARIFY THE INTENSITY.  THERE IS NO OBVIOUS
REASON TO ARGUE FOR SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE INTENSITY OF EPSILON
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... AS THE SHEAR SHOULD NOT INCREASE
MARKEDLY AND THE OCEAN TEMPERATURES WILL GET GRADUALLY COOLER ALONG
THE FORECAST TRACK.  THE GFDL FORECASTS BRIEF STRENGTHENING TO
ABOUT 60 KT LATER THIS MORNING BUT OTHERWISE FORECASTS THE
INTENSITY TO REMAIN IN THE 50-60 KT RANGE FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS...
WHILE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE ANTICIPATES A GRADUAL DECLINE.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BETWEEN AND CALLS FOR A LITTLE WEAKENING
BEFORE EPSILON LIKELY BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL IN A COUPLE OF DAYS
OVER 22C WATERS.

EPSILON HAS TURNED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD... AND THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 075/10 WHICH HAS BEEN CONSISTENT DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS OR SO.  EPSILON IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD DEEP-LAYER TROUGH
OVER THE SUBTROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC... BUT THE LARGE-SCALE
MIDLATITUDE PATTERN IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND A RIDGE DOMINATING THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC.  AS THE MIDLATITUDE PATTERN PROGRESSES SLOWLY EASTWARD...
EPSILON SHOULD CONTINUE GENERALLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS.  HOWEVER... MOST OF THE MODELS DO NOT FORECAST EPSILON
TO MOVE VERY FAST... WITH ONE EXCEPTION BEING THE GFS WHICH TAKES
THE STORM QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD.  EXCEPT FOR BEING FASTER DURING
THE FIRST 24 HOURS... THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS.
 
 
FORECASTER KNABB
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/0900Z 30.2N  52.1W    55 KT
 12HR VT     01/1800Z 30.9N  50.9W    50 KT
 24HR VT     02/0600Z 32.0N  49.2W    50 KT
 36HR VT     02/1800Z 33.1N  47.5W    50 KT
 48HR VT     03/0600Z 34.0N  45.5W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     04/0600Z 35.5N  41.5W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     05/0600Z 37.0N  38.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     06/0600Z 38.5N  33.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
$$
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Page last modified: Thursday, 01-Dec-2005 09:10:24 UTC