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Tropical Storm EPSILON


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST WED NOV 30 2005
 
EPSILON SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND PATTERN THIS
EVENING AROUND A RATHER RAGGED EYE.  WHILE THE CONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE
COOLED THE PAST FEW HOURS...THEY ARE NOT YET COLD ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY
AN UPGRADE TO A HURRICANE...AS THE MAXIMUM SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES REMAIN 45 KT.  A RECENT QUIKSCAT OVERPASS SHOWS WINDS OF
NO MORE THAN 50 KT...WHICH IS A BIT LESS THAN SEEN ON THE PREVIOUS
PASS.  ON THE OTHER HAND...A 2122Z AMSU OVERPASS SHOWED A WARM CORE
AND AN ESTIMATED SURFACE WIND SPEED OF 66 KT.  GIVEN THE COOLING
CONVECTIVE TOPS AND THE UNCHANGED SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 60 KT.  HOWEVER...IF THE QUIKSCAT
DATA IS RIGHT...THIS MIGHT BE A BIT GENEROUS. 
 
EPSILON HAS TURNED SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE PAST 6 HR WITH THE
INITIAL MOTION NOW 135/5...AND THE SHORT-TERM MOTION MAY BE EVEN
MORE EASTWARD.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT EPSILON REMAINS
EMBEDDED IN A DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE...WHICH IS SOUTH OF A MID/UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NEWFOUNDLAND EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO
42N40W.  A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT ARE OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE ADJACENT WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND
WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW FROM THE TROUGH HAS SPREAD EASTWARD TO
NEAR 31N60W.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE TO CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN...WITH THE TROUGH PICKING UP EPSILON/DEEP-LAYER LOW AND
MOVING IT GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. 
HOWEVER...SINCE THE STORM IS WELL SOUTH OF THE STRONGEST MID/UPPER-
LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH...IT WILL PROBABLY NOT MOVE
TOO QUICKLY.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION.  IT CALLS
FOR A GENERALLY NORTHEATWARD MOTION THROUGH 120 HR...BUT NEVER
FASTER THAN ABOUT 10 KT.  THE TRACK IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GUNS CONSENSUS MODEL.

EPSILON IS CURRENTLY OVER 24C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND ANY
INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION WOULD ALLOW IT TO BECOME A HURRICANE. 
HOWEVER...THE OUTFLOW HAS DECREASED AS WESTERLY SHEAR STARTS
AFFECTING THE SYSTEM...AND THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
STRENGTHENING SHOULD CLOSE IN 12-24 HR.  AFTER THAT...INCREASING
SHEAR...COOLER SSTS...AND THE APPROACH OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD
LEAD TO GRADUAL WEAKENING AND EVENTUAL EXTRATROPICAL TR ANSITON. 
THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL HOLD THE INTENSITY AT 60 KT FOR 12
HR...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF NUDGE UP TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IS NOT
IMPOSSIBLE.  AFTER 12 HR...THE FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL
WEAKENING...WITH EPSILON BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL IN 48-72 HR.

THE INITIAL AND FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN REVISED BASED ON THE
QUIKSCAT DATA.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/0300Z 29.6N  53.4W    60 KT
 12HR VT     01/1200Z 30.0N  53.0W    60 KT
 24HR VT     02/0000Z 30.9N  51.5W    55 KT
 36HR VT     02/1200Z 32.0N  49.8W    55 KT
 48HR VT     03/0000Z 33.0N  48.0W    50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     04/0000Z 34.5N  44.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     05/0000Z 36.0N  40.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     06/0000Z 37.5N  35.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
$$
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Page last modified: Thursday, 01-Dec-2005 02:40:14 UTC