Tropical Storm EPSILON

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TROPICAL STORM EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM EST TUE NOV 29 2005
 
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY...NEARBY SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS
...AND 29/0938Z QUIKSCAT SATELLITE WIND DATA INDICATE THE LARGE
NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 730 NMI EAST OF
BERMUDA HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER TO BE
CLASSIFIED AS TROPICAL STORM EPSILON...THE 26TH NAMED STORM OF THE
APPARENTLY NEVER ENDING 2005 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS BASED ON BLEND OF 40-KT QUIKSCAT WINDS IN THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT AND A 29/0800Z 996.0 MB...EQUAL TO APPROXIMATELY
55 KT... PRESSURE REPORT FROM BUOY 41543 THAT WAS LOCATED ABOUT 90
NMI SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/07 KT. EPSILON IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AROUND THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A HIGH-LATITUDE RIDGE. AFTER THAT...THE
CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN AND NORTHEASTWARD AS A
DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES MOVES EASTWARD AND BEGINS TO TURN EPSILON
BACK TOWARD THE EAST. BY 96 HOURS... EPSILON IS EXPECTED TO
ACCELERATE RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL OR
POSSIBLY EVEN BECOME ABSORBED BY THE MUCH LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE NHC MODEL
CONSENSUS.

EPSILON IS LOCATED OVER 25C SSTS... WHICH IS SUFFICIENTLY WARM
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AT LEAST MINIMAL HURRICANE INTENSITY. ALTHOUGH A
BANDING EYE-LIKE FEATURE DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS... THE
LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE AND WIND FIELDS APPEAR TO MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF
SLOW DEVELOPING SUBTROPICAL CYCLONES. AS SUCH... INTENSIFICATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOWER THAN USUAL. HOWEVER... IF THE DEEP CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INCREASE AROUND THE CENTER... THEN MORE AND
EARLIER STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR THAN WHAT IS FORECAST. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL AND IS
HIGHER THAN THE GFDL MODEL.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      29/1500Z 31.6N  50.4W    40 KT
 12HR VT     30/0000Z 31.7N  51.7W    50 KT
 24HR VT     30/1200Z 31.8N  53.4W    55 KT
 36HR VT     01/0000Z 32.0N  54.3W    60 KT
 48HR VT     01/1200Z 32.7N  53.7W    60 KT
 72HR VT     02/1200Z 33.5N  51.0W    55 KT
 96HR VT     03/1200Z 35.0N  45.5W    50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     04/1200Z 37.0N  41.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
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