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Tropical Storm DELTA


ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM DELTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST SAT NOV 26 2005
 
DELTA CONTINUES TO HAVE A LARGE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH THE DEEP
CONVECTION CONFINED TO A CLUSTER LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
HOWEVER... THE CIRCULATION IS BECOMING ELONGATED AND THE CENTER HAS
BECOME LESS DEFINED. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KNOTS. THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD COOLER WATERS AND WITHIN AN EVEN
STRONGER WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THEREFORE...ADDITIONAL WEAKENING
IS ANTICIPATED AND DELTA SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN A
DAY OR SO AND THEN BECOME ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM.
 
DELTA HAS BEGUN TO MOVE FASTER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 050 DEGREES
AT 14 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST FOR A DAY OR SO WITHIN THE FLOW AROUND A DEVELOPING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ALONG 50 DEGREES WEST. THEN...A TURN TO THE
EAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED AS DELTA
BECOMES FULLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A
LARGE CYCLONE OVER WESTERN EUROPE. THIS IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/2100Z 23.2N  36.7W    35 KT
 12HR VT     27/0600Z 24.5N  35.0W    30 KT
 24HR VT     27/1800Z 27.0N  31.5W    30 KT
 36HR VT     28/0600Z 28.5N  26.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     28/1800Z 28.5N  20.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     29/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Saturday, 26-Nov-2005 20:40:16 UTC