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Hurricane BETA


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE BETA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM EST SUN OCT 30 2005
 
THE EYE BECAME MORE CLEARLY DEFINED IN GOES INFRARED IMAGERY
OVERNIGHT AND AT 06Z WAS SURROUNDED BY A SOLID RING OF VERY DEEP
CONVECTION WITH TOPS COLDER THAN -80C.  THE EYE IS SO SMALL...
HOWEVER... THAT SSMI IMAGERY FROM A 29/0156Z OVERPASS BARELY
RESOLVED IT.  DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL
CLASSIFYING AGENCIES AT 06Z INCREASED TO T5.5/102 KT.  SINCE THAT
TIME THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED SOMEWHAT... BUT THE EYE IS STILL
DISCERNIBLE.  THERE IS NOT ANY OBVIOUS REASON WHY THE INTENSITY WAS
NOT 100 KT AT 06Z... AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS ALSO SET TO 100
KT SINCE THE WINDS MIGHT NOT YET HAVE DECREASED IN RESPONSE TO THE
VERY RECENT WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTION.  BETA IS THE EIGHTH MAJOR
HURRICANE OF THE 2005 ATLANTIC SEASON... ALTHOUGH GIVEN CURRENT
TRENDS IT COULD WEAKEN AND REACH THE COASTLINE OF NICARAGUA AS A
CATEGORY TWO.  THIS SMALL HURRICANE SHOULD WEAKEN FAIRLY RAPIDLY
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF CENTRAL
AMERICA.
 
A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT 7 KT HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED
OVERNIGHT... AND THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE ANY REASON WHY BETA WILL
SLOW DOWN SOON... SO LANDFALL ON THE EAST COAST OF NICARAGUA IS
IMMINENT.  MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS BRING THE CENTER OF BETA
ACROSS NICARAGUA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THEN FORECAST
AT LEAST A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO EMERGE INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN.  SINCE BETA IS SUCH A SMALL HURRICANE AND THE
TERRAIN OF NICARAGUA SO RUGGED... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CALL
FOR THE DEPRESSION TO DISSIPATE IN 24 HOURS OR LESS AND FOR THE
REMNANT LOW TO DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  IT
IS POSSIBLE... HOWEVER... THAT WHATEVER IS LEFT OF BETA IN A FEW
DAYS COULD AT SOME POINT LEAD TO REGENERATION IN THE PACIFIC.
 
BETA WILL BRING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA... PRIMARILY NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS... LIKELY LEADING TO
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES WHICH COULD CAUSE
CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE.  THE TORRENTIAL RAINS COULD CONTINUE WELL
INLAND AND MANY HOURS AFTER LANDFALL... EVEN AFTER THE WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH BETA WEAKEN.
 
SOME OF THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH BETA COULD BE
DRAWN INTO A DEVELOPING EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS.
 
FORECASTER KNABB
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      30/0900Z 13.0N  83.4W   100 KT
 12HR VT     30/1800Z 12.7N  84.3W    60 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     31/0600Z 12.5N  85.6W    30 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
 36HR VT     31/1800Z 12.4N  86.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     01/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Sunday, 30-Oct-2005 09:10:14 UTC