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Hurricane BETA


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE BETA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT OCT 29 2005
 
CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE BETA HAS
BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS AND HAS
STRENGTHENED INTO THE 13TH HURRICANE OF THE 2005 ATLANTIC SEASON. A
29/0211Z SSMI OVERPASS THAT WAS NOT AVAILABLE FOR THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY REVEALED A VERY SMALL EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION... WHICH MEANS BETA WAS PROBABLY A HURRICANE AT 00Z. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY OF 70 KT IS A BLEND OF DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T4.5/77 KT FROM TAFB AND T4.0/65 KT FROM SAB.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 320/03. THE CENTER
POSITION HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE UNTIL THE PAST HOUR WHEN AN
EYE FEATURE/PRONOUNCED WARM SPOT BECAME APPARENT IN INFRARED
IMAGERY NORTH OF PROVIDENCIA ISLAND. THE OVERALL MOTION...HOWEVER
...HAS BEEN VERY SLOW AND BETA MAY EVEN BE STATIONARY. THE COMPACT
HURRICANE IS CURRENTLY TRAPPED IN A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE THAT LIES ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES... WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA... AND CENTRAL AMERICA. MOST OF THE NHC MODELS CONTINUE TO
OVERESTIMATE THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND
INSIST ON DRIVING BETA WEST-SOUTHWEST OR SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN NICARAGUA AND INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. HOWEVER... THEY
HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING THIS MOTION FOR NEARLY 3 DAYS NOW AND IT
HASN'T HAPPENED YET. THE EXCEPTIONS HAVE BEEN THE UKMET... CANADIAN
AND SOME OF THE SIMPLER STATISTICAL MODELS... WHICH HAVE BEEN TAKING
BETA ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AN INTO
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THOSE MODELS HAVE HAD
A NORTHWARD BIAS AND ALSO A FAST SPEED BIAS. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS INDUCING THE
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF BETA TO GRADUALLY BUILD
WESTWARD AND SLOWLY NUDGE THE HURRICANE INTO NICARAGUA. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND LIES
BETWEEN THE TWO EXTREMES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE MENTIONED EARLIER.
 
THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS WELL ESTABLISHED AND THE
VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BELOW 10 KT BY 24 HOURS. THE
VERY WARM SSTS AND THE UNUSUALLY MOIST MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
ARE CONDUCIVE TO BETA RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING... IF COLD UPWELLING
DOES NOT OCCUR BENEATH THE SLOW MOVING CYCLONE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
BETA COULD BECOME A STRONG CATEGORY 2 OR EVEN A CATEGORY 3
HURRICANE BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA.

REGARDLESS OF THE INTENSITY OF BETA AT LANDFALL...THIS TROPICAL
CYCLONE WILL BRING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA...PRIMARILY NICARAGUA... CAUSING CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE... AND
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. IN ADDITION... SOME
OF THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH BETA MAY GET DRAWN
INTO A DEVELOPING WINTER-TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO... RESULTING IN STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS CUBA... FLORIDA... AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      29/0900Z 13.7N  81.5W    70 KT
 12HR VT     29/1800Z 14.1N  82.1W    80 KT
 24HR VT     30/0600Z 14.3N  83.0W    90 KT
 36HR VT     30/1800Z 14.4N  83.9W    50 KT...INLAND NERN NICARAGUA
 48HR VT     31/0600Z 14.4N  84.9W    25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
 72HR VT     01/0600Z 14.4N  86.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND
 96HR VT     02/0600Z 14.5N  88.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND
120HR VT     03/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Saturday, 29-Oct-2005 09:10:13 UTC