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Hurricane WILMA


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  42
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE OCT 25 2005
 
MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT WILMA IS WEAKENING AND
BEGINNING TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERSTICS.  AN SSM/I OVERPASS AT
1117Z SHOWS THAT THE CENTER IS NORTHWEST OF THE PRIMARY
CONVECTION...WHILE VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS COLD AIR CLOUDS SOUTH OF
THE CENTER AND A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
QUADRANT.  WILMA SHOULD MOVE NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM IN THE NEXT
12-24 HR...WHICH SHOULD FINISH OFF THE REMAINING CENTRAL CONVECTION
AND THE REMAINING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS
LIKE TO LOSE WILMA IN THE WARM FRONT OF A BAROCLINIC LOW CENTERED
NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES IN LESS THAN 72
HR.  GIVE THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...IT WILL PROBABLY LAST A BIT
LONGER THAN THAT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A VERY RAPID 045/046.  ASSUMING WILMA IS NOT
ABSORBED BY THE BAROCLINIC LOW...THE FORECAST TRACK WILL TURN THE
CYCLONE EASTWARD OVER THE TOP OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC THROUGH 72 HR...FOLLOWED BY AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION
BEFORE DISSIPATION.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/1500Z 38.5N  66.0W    90 KT
 12HR VT     26/0000Z 42.3N  60.0W    75 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 24HR VT     26/1200Z 44.9N  54.3W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     27/0000Z 46.0N  47.8W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     27/1200Z 46.0N  40.9W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     28/1200Z 46.0N  30.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     29/1200Z 50.0N  20.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     30/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 25-Oct-2005 14:40:14 UTC