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Hurricane WILMA


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  40
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2005
 
WILMA'S EYE HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS... AND
THE DIAMETER HAS DECREASED FROM 60 NMI DOWN TO 40 NMI. THE EYEWALL
CONVECTION HAS ALSO INCREASED WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES OF -75 TO
-80C NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. AT 24/2001Z... AN AIR FORCE RECON
AIRCRAFT REPORTED 136-KT 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS IN THE SOUTH
QUADRANT. SINCE THAT TIME... BOTH THE EYE AND EYEWALL CONVECTION
HAVE IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY... AND USING AN 80 PERCENT REDUCTION
FACTOR YIELDS ABOUT 109 KT SURFACE WINDS. IN ADDITION... DVORAK
T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE T4.5/77KT. ADDING THE FORWARD SPEED
OF WILMA TO THE T-NUMBERS SUPPPORTS AN INTENSITY OF ABOUT 110 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 045/41. WILMA IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A STRONG DIGGING
DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. FOR THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS.
BETWEEN 36-48 HOURS... THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE TO THE EAST OF
WILMA IS EXPECTED TO FORCE THE CYCLONE A LITTLE MORE NORTHWARD AT A
SLOWER FORWARD SPEED NEAR SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND... AFTER WHICH
A STEADY EASTWARD MOTION OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
OCCUR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK AND THE GUNA CONSENSUS MODEL.

WILMA HAS ABOUT ANOTHER 18 HOURS OR SO OVER 26C AND WARMER SSTS
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AT 71 KT BY 24 HOURS...
THE RAPID MOTION AND LARGE SIZE OF THE WILMA'S CIRCULATION SHOULD
OFFSET THESE OTHERWISE VERY ADVERSE CONDITIONS... AND ALLOW THE
CYCLONE TO REMAIN A HURRICANE UNTIL MUCH COOLER WATER IS REACHED BY
OR SHORTLY AFTER THE 24-HOUR TIME PERIOD. ALTHOUGH WILMA WILL
LIKELY LOSE MUCH IF NOT ALL OF ITS CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION BY 36
HOURS... THE LARGE CIRCULATION WILL NOT SPIN DOWN VERY QUICKLY...
WHICH MEANS THAT WILMA SHOULD REMAIN A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL
WINTER-TYPE STORM SYSTEM AT 48-120 HR OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/0300Z 31.6N  74.3W   110 KT
 12HR VT     25/1200Z 36.1N  68.9W    95 KT
 24HR VT     26/0000Z 41.2N  61.3W    70 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     26/1200Z 44.0N  56.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     27/0000Z 46.1N  51.2W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     28/0000Z 47.0N  44.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     29/0000Z 47.5N  30.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     30/0000Z 51.5N  23.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 25-Oct-2005 02:55:14 UTC