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Hurricane WILMA


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005

CENTER FIXES FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT
WILMA IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD...AROUND 045/03.  A LARGE AND
STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH...DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES...WILL CAUSE THE SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW
FOR WILMA TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 
THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITHIN
24-36 HOURS.  DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME
SPREAD...WITH THE GFS BEING THE NORTHERNMOST AND NORTH OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE....AND THE NOGAPS NEAR THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE
NEAR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED JUST SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD AND IS CLOSE TO
THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND TO THE NCEP GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEAN.   

AIR FORCE RECON OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE INNER CORE OF
WILMA...WHICH WAS DISRUPTED DUE TO ITS INTERACTION WITH LAND...IS
BECOMING SLIGHTLY BETTER DEFINED.  HOWEVER THE EYE IS STILL QUITE
LARGE...ABOUT 65 N MI ACROSS...AND RAGGED.  THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH SINCE THE HURRICANE EMERGED FROM NORTHEAST
YUCATAN...AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 85 KT IS BASED ON PEAK
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 91 KT TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER...AND SOME
RESPECT FOR A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 961 MB.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS ELONGATED ALONG A NNE-SSW AXIS WITH MOST
OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER.  THIS MAY BE A HARBINGER OF INCREASING SHEAR...BUT IT IS
ASSUMED THAT WILMA'S INNER CORE WILL BE ABLE TO AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY REDEVELOP...AND THAT SOME RESTRENGTHENING WILL OCCUR
TODAY.  HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE
IN VERTICAL SHEAR WILL OCCUR AS WILMA NEARS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA... WHICH...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER
LOWER-LEVEL AIR... WOULD LEAD TO WEAKENING.  SINCE THE TROUGH
INTERACTING WITH WILMA IS QUITE STRONG...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AT A RELATIVELY LOW LATITUDE BY ABOUT 48
HOURS.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO STRESS THAT ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT
FORECAST TRACK SINCE WILMA HAS A LARGE WIND FIELD AND SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE FELT WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/0900Z 22.1N  86.6W    85 KT
 12HR VT     23/1800Z 23.0N  85.5W    90 KT
 24HR VT     24/0600Z 24.7N  83.3W    85 KT
 36HR VT     24/1800Z 27.4N  79.5W    65 KT
 48HR VT     25/0600Z 32.5N  74.5W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     26/0600Z 43.0N  66.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     27/0600Z 47.5N  59.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     28/0600Z 49.0N  49.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
$$
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Page last modified: Sunday, 23-Oct-2005 09:10:25 UTC