Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane WILMA


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005
 
THE CENTER OF WILMA HAS MOVED OFF OF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA.  EARLIER REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT SHOWED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 959 MB...WITH MAXIMUM 700
MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 93 KT 30-35 N MI FROM THE CENTER.  THE
PLANE ALSO REPORTED THE REMAINS OF AN INNER EYEWALL...AND AN OUTER
EYEWALL WITH A DIAMETER VARYING BETWEEN 60-80 N MI.  SINCE THE
CENTER LEFT THE COAST... SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME COOLING OF
THE CLOUD TOPS IN BOTH THE INNER AND OUTER EYEWALLS...ALTHOUGH
THERE HAS NOT YET BEEN ENOUGH INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION TO JUSTIFY
INCREASING THE WINDS.  THUS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 85 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 010/3.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAWINSONDE
DATA SHOW THAT THE STRONG DEEP-LAYER TROUGH IS DEVELOPING OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES AS FORECAST BY THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS.  THIS
TROUGH SHOULD TURN WILMA TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 12-24
HR...WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCELERATION.  WHILE THE MODELS AGREE ON THE
GENERAL TRACK OF WILMA...THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD AS TO WHERE IN
FLORIDA THE CENTER WILL MAKE LANDFALL.  THE 18Z GFS IS WELL TO THE
LEFT...CALLING FOR A LANDFALL NEAR CHARLOTTE HARBOR...WHILE THE 12Z 
ECMWF IS WELL TO THE RIGHT...CALLING FOR THE CENTER TO CROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED JUST A LITTLE TO
THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...BRINGING THE CENTER TO THE
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST IN ABOUT 36 HR.  THE TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE
18Z GFDL...THE MODEL CONSENSUS...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.  WILMA
SHOULD MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC...
AND EVENTUALLY TURN MORE EASTWARD AT HIGH LATITUDE AFTER 96 HR.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC.  WILMA IS
CURRENTLY TRYING TO FINISH AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE THAT BEGAN
ALMOST 48 HR AGO.  THE LARGE SIZE OF THE OUTER EYEWALL ARGUES
AGAINST RAPID STRENGTHENING...EVEN THOUGH THE EYE WILL BE CROSSING
THE LOOP CURRENT.  AFTER 24 HR...THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY...AND REPORTS FROM THE NOAA G4 JET SHOW THAT
DEEP-LAYER DRY AIR IS LURKING JUST WEST OF WILMA AND COULD BE
ENTRAINED INTO THE STORM NEAR THIS TIME.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE
GFDL CONTINUES TO CALL FOR STRENGTHENING...BRINGING THE STORM TO 95
KT NEAR LANDFALL IN FLORIDA.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL BE A
BLEND OF THE GFDL AND THE FORECAST SHEAR...GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING
WILMA TO 100 KT IN 24 HR AND THEN WEAKENING A LITTLE BEFORE
LANDFALL.  WILMA SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL IN FLORIDA AS A CATEGORY TWO
HURRICANE...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME CHANCE IT COULD HIT AS A
CATEGORY THREE.  AFTER CROSSING FLORIDA...WILMA SHOULD QUICKLY
WEAKEN DUE TO SHEAR AND EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
 
BASED ON THE TRACK FORECAST AND THE LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH WILMA...NEW WARNING AND WATCHES HAVE
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE BAHAMAS.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/0300Z 21.8N  86.9W    85 KT
 12HR VT     23/1200Z 22.5N  86.3W    90 KT
 24HR VT     24/0000Z 24.0N  84.6W   100 KT
 36HR VT     24/1200Z 26.3N  81.5W    90 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     25/0000Z 30.5N  77.0W    75 KT...OVER WATER
 72HR VT     26/0000Z 41.0N  66.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     27/0000Z 46.0N  55.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     28/0000Z 46.0N  42.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
$$
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Sunday, 23-Oct-2005 03:10:13 UTC