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Subtropical Depression TWENTY-TWO


ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   3...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT OCT 08 2005

...CORRECTED FOR SUBTROPICAL NOT TROPICAL...AND LAST ADVISORY...
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING INDICATES THAT THE DEPRESSION IS NO
LONGER PRODUCING ANY DEEP CONVECTION... AND WHAT CONVECTION THERE
HAD BEEN EARLIER THIS EVENING WAS NOT AT ALL ORGANIZED ABOUT THE
LOW LEVEL CENTER... WHICH IS NOW COMPLETELY EXPOSED. THEREFORE...
THE SYSTEM NO LONGER HAS THE CHARACTERISTICS OF EITHER A
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE...  AND SO THIS WILL BE THE LAST
ADVISORY. THE DEMISE OF THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN BROUGHT ON BY
STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE
MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO ITS SOUTH. THIS SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST TO
ABATE ANY TIME SOON... SO REGENERATION APPEARS UNLIKELY... BUT THE
REMANT LOW WILL BE MONITORED FOR THE SEEMINGLY REMOTE POSSIBILITY
OF DEVELOPING NEW CONVECTION.

THE TRACK FORECAST ASSUMES THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN A SHALLOW REMNANT
LOW AND ANTICIPATES A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION... IN THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC... FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS
UNTIL THE LOW DISSIPATES.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

 
FORECASTER KNABB
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      09/0300Z 29.2N  62.6W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 12HR VT     09/1200Z 29.8N  65.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     10/0000Z 30.6N  67.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     10/1200Z 31.3N  69.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     11/0000Z 31.8N  71.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     12/0000Z 32.5N  73.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
$$
NNNN



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Page last modified: Sunday, 09-Oct-2005 03:10:12 UTC