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Tropical Storm STAN


ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM STAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON OCT 03 2005

THERE HAS BEEN NO AERIAL RECONNAISSANCE OF STAN OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE NEXT MISSION SCHEDULED FOR AROUND 0500Z.
ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOW VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS NEAR/OVER THE
ESTIMATED CENTER BUT NO WELL-DEFINED BANDING FEATURES ARE EVIDENT.
CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 55 KT IN ACCORD WITH THE LATEST DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB.  THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS TO BE QUITE
FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...AND THE STATISTICAL RAPID INTENSITY
INDEX SHOWS A 49 PER CENT PROBABILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION...
DEFINED AS AN INCREASE OF 25 KT OVER 24 HOURS.  MY OFFICIAL WIND
SPEED FORECAST IS PROBABLY A CONSERVATIVE ONE.  THE INTENSITY
PREDICTION BEYOND 36 HOURS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE DEGREE OF
INTERACTION WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MEXICO.
 
WITHOUT THE AIRCRAFT...THE CENTER LOCATION IS RATHER UNCERTAIN. THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 260/06.  A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE THAT
EXTENDS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO TEXAS IS LIKELY TO PREVAIL FOR
ANOTHER 2 DAYS OR SO.  THIS PATTERN WOULD STEER STAN ACROSS THE
GULF COAST OF MEXICO AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK.
HOWEVER A DEVELOPING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE OVER THE EASTERN
GULF COULD COMPLICATE THE STEERING PATTERN.  THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
THAT STAN COULD BECOME VERTICALLY DECOUPLED WHEN IT REACHES THE
COAST...AND THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL PART OF THE CIRCULATION DRAGGED
EASTWARD INTO THE ABOVEMENTIONED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...WHILE THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER MOVES INLAND AND DISSIPATES.  THE TRACK MODELS
HAVE BECOME DIVERGENT AND SOME...E.G. THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN...AND NOGAPS...DO NOT A LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT 4 DAYS.  THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE...BUT THE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST IS INCREASING.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/0300Z 19.9N  93.4W    55 KT
 12HR VT     04/1200Z 19.7N  94.0W    65 KT
 24HR VT     05/0000Z 19.4N  94.8W    75 KT
 36HR VT     05/1200Z 19.1N  95.5W    85 KT
 48HR VT     06/0000Z 18.9N  96.0W    85 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     07/0000Z 18.5N  96.5W    35 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     08/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 04-Oct-2005 02:55:12 UTC