Tropical Depression NINETEEN

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT OCT 01 2005
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES ORGANIZED CONVECTION HAS ESSENTIALLY
EVAPORATED THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... THE LAST COUPLE OF IMAGES ARE
SHOWING A SMALL BURST OF CONVECTION WITH TOPS COLDER THAN -70C HAS
DEVELOPED VERY NEAR THE WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  AN EARLIER
QUIKSCAT OVERPASS REVEALED A LARGE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD THAT WILL
LIKELY TAKE ANOTHER 6 HOURS OR SO TO SPIN DOWN... SO THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 30 KT... ESPECIALLY SINCE DEEP
CONVECTION MAY BE STARTING TO REFIRE NEAR THE CENTER. 
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/07.  THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. TD-19 IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD
AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC LOW FOR THE
NEXT 72 HOURS... AND THEN TURN SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD... ASSUMING THE
SYSTEM SURVIVES THAT LONG AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE GFDL MODEL IS
THE FASTEST OF ALL OF THE MODELS AND RECURVES THE CYCLONE QUICKLY
TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST AFTER 72 HOURS. HOWEVER... THE GFDL MAKES
THE SYSTEM A VERTICALLY DEEP 80-KT HURRICANE BY 96 HOURS... DESPITE
40-50 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST... AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS...
MINUS THE GFDL CONTRIBUTION AFTER 72 HOURS SINCE IT APPEARS
UNLIKELY THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH.
 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO WHILE THE
SYSTEM REMAINS OVER 26-27C SSTS. BY 48 HOURS... UPPER-LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE AT LEAST 25 KT AND TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE TO NEAR 40 KT BY 72 HOURS. THE INCREASING
VERTICAL SHEAR AND COOLER SSTS SHOULD CREATE AT LEAST SLOW
WEAKENING... BUT THE SYSTEM COULD DISSIPATE BY 96 HOURS AS
INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/2100Z 14.7N  34.2W    30 KT
 12HR VT     02/0600Z 16.0N  34.9W    35 KT
 24HR VT     02/1800Z 17.8N  35.7W    40 KT
 36HR VT     03/0600Z 19.5N  36.5W    40 KT
 48HR VT     03/1800Z 21.2N  37.1W    35 KT
 72HR VT     04/1800Z 24.2N  37.4W    30 KT
 96HR VT     05/1800Z 26.5N  37.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT     06/1800Z 29.0N  35.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 
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