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Hurricane PHILIPPE


ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005

EARLY MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALED A SOMEWHAT RAGGED
HURRICANE WITH THE CENTER DIFFICULT TO LOCATE.  AN 1156 UTC SSMI
PASS WAS VERY HELPFUL IN DETERMINING THAT THE CENTER WAS LOCATED
JUST WEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  HOWEVER...A NEW CONVECTIVE BURST
HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER OR JUST WEST OF THE CENTER.  DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSOUS 65 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES AND
THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 65 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

BASED ON THE SSMI MICROWAVE DATA...THE INITIAL MOTION IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 345/6 KT. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK THE
CYCLONE NORTHWARD INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG
60W.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...BUT IS A LITTLE FASTER AT 96 AND 120 HOURS...SINCE 
THE MODEL CONSENSUS BEGINS TO ACCELERATE PHILIPPE TO THE NORTH 
THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST.

DUE TO THE RAGGED SATELLITE APPEARANCE AND MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR
CURRENTLY OVER THE CYCLONE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE
LESS AGGRESSIVE DURING THE FIRST 24-36 HOURS.  THE SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO LESSEN BETWEEN 36-72 HOURS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW PHILIPPE
TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS 
THE SHIPS GUIDANCE CLOSELY. 
 
FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/1500Z 17.4N  56.3W    65 KT
 12HR VT     20/0000Z 18.1N  56.7W    65 KT
 24HR VT     20/1200Z 19.2N  57.4W    70 KT
 36HR VT     21/0000Z 20.2N  58.0W    75 KT
 48HR VT     21/1200Z 21.7N  58.7W    80 KT
 72HR VT     22/1200Z 24.5N  59.5W    90 KT
 96HR VT     23/1200Z 27.5N  60.0W    90 KT
120HR VT     24/1200Z 31.5N  59.5W    90 KT
 
$$
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Page last modified: Monday, 19-Sep-2005 20:55:11 UTC