Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Depression SEVENTEEN


ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2005
 
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND A BROAD AND
ELONGATED CIRCULATION CENTER ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE STRONG
CONVECTION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN...WITH THE REPORTED
POSITION SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION. 
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB AND THE MAXIMUM
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 1500 FT SO FAR ARE 40 KT.  THIS SUGGESTS THAT
THE DEPRESSION IS NOT QUITE A TROPICAL STORM...BUT IT SHOULD REACH
THAT STATUS SOMETIME TONIGHT.  

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 310/8.  STEERING
CURRENTS REMAIN UNUSUALLY WEAK FOR THAT PART OF THE ATLANTIC...AND
THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE RATHER SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AROUND
THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS...
WITH PERHAPS A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION AFTER THREE DAYS TOWARDS A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST
THE SYSTEM TO PASS EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...ALTHOUGH MOST OF
THEM STILL DO NOT NOT INITIALIZE THE SYSTEM VERY WELL.  THE
FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION...AND LIES ALONG THE LEFT SIDE
OF THE ENVELOPE OF MODEL GUIDANCE.
 
THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER 30C WATER FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS AND
THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT TO PERHAPS MODERATE.  THUS...
STEADY STRENGTHENING SHOULD OCCUR.  THE SHIPS MODEL HAS A LITTLE
LESS INTENSIFICATION THAN 6 HR AGO AS IT IS FORECASTING A LITTLE
MORE SHEAR.  HOWEVER...THE GFDL CONTINUES TO SHOW RAPID
INTENSIFICATION TO A MAJOR HURRICANE.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST
BRINGS THE DEPRESSION TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 48 HR AND TO 95 KT
BY 120 HR...IN BETWEEN SHIPS AND THE GFDL.
 
THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK DOES NOT IMMEDIATELY REQUIRE WATCHES OR
WARNINGS.  WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES LATER TONIGHT OR SUNDAY.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      17/2100Z 13.8N  55.2W    30 KT
 12HR VT     18/0600Z 14.6N  56.1W    35 KT
 24HR VT     18/1800Z 15.6N  57.1W    45 KT
 36HR VT     19/0600Z 16.6N  58.1W    55 KT
 48HR VT     19/1800Z 17.6N  59.1W    65 KT
 72HR VT     20/1800Z 19.5N  61.0W    75 KT
 96HR VT     21/1800Z 21.5N  62.0W    85 KT
120HR VT     22/1800Z 23.5N  63.0W    95 KT
 
 
$$
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Saturday, 17-Sep-2005 20:55:10 UTC