Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane OPHELIA


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  43
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI SEP 16 2005
 
OPHELIA HAS SOMEWHAT RE-ORGANIZED DURING THE DAY...WITH THE
CONVECTION MAKING OCCASIONAL ATTEMPTS TO WRAP AROUND THE WEST SIDE
OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 993 MB. 
THE NOAA PLANE MEASURED 73 KT AT 700 MB...AND A 59 KT SURFACE WIND
OFF THE STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER.  HOWEVER...THE
MAXIMUM WIND OBSERVED THUS FAR BY THE AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT AT 59 MB
IS 59 KT.  THERE IS ALSO A REPORT OF 74 KT AT 2500 FT FROM THE
FIRST-EVER SUCCESSFUL AEROSONDE FLIGHT INTO THE CORE OF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE.  BASED ON ALL THIS DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
INCREASED TO 55 KT.

OPHELIA HAS TURNED RIGHT AND ACCELERATED WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF
040/11.  THE STORM IS BECOMING EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES...AND AS
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE EAST BREAKS DOWN THE STORM SHOULD
TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE.  THIS SHOULD BE FOLLOWED AFTER
72 HR BY A MORE EASTWARD MOTION AT HIGH LATITUDE.  THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 48 HR...AND THE NEW FORECAST
TRACK IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE.  THE NEW TRACK IS AGAIN A
LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE OLD TRACK...PARTICULARLY AFTER 24 HR.
 
WHILE LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12-24
HR...SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR BEFORE OPHELIA CROSSES
THE NORTH WALL OF THE GULF STREAM IN 12-18 HR.  AFTER THAT...COLDER
WATER...INCREASING SHEAR...AND THE ONSET OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING.  OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO LOSE
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN ABOUT 36 HR.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/2100Z 36.8N  73.2W    55 KT
 12HR VT     17/0600Z 38.7N  71.7W    55 KT
 24HR VT     17/1800Z 41.6N  68.5W    55 KT
 36HR VT     18/0600Z 45.2N  63.6W    50 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     18/1800Z 48.0N  57.3W    45 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     19/1800Z 51.5N  43.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     20/1800Z 53.5N  27.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     21/1800Z 55.0N  14.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
$$
NNNN



Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 16-Sep-2005 20:40:10 UTC