Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm OPHELIA


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU SEP 08 2005
 
AIRCRAFT RECON FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 61 KT AND MELBOURNE WSR-88D
DOPPLER RADAR VELOCITIES OF 60-64 KT BETWEEN 6000-7000 FT SUPPORT
INCREASING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 50 KT. HOWEVER...RECON DATA
JUST IN INDICATES SURFACE WINDS OF 56 KT AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF
987 MB. IF THIS NEW DEVELOPMENT PERSISTS...THEN A SPECIAL ADVISORY
WILL BE ISSUED TO INCREASE THE INTENSITY AND LOWER THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS STATIONARY.  OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN WEAK STEERING FLOW FOR THE NEXT 3 TO PERHAPS 5 DAYS AS
THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH REMAINS INTACT...WHILE THE
MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERLY...AND THE
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SOUTHERLY. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON A SOW NORTHWARD MOTION THROUGH 48 HOURS
WITH A GENERAL EASTWARD MOTION AFTER THAT. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW
FAR EAST WILL OPHELIA GO BEFORE IT LOOPS BACK TO THE WEST. THE GFDL
IS THE FARTHEST WEST MODEL AND MOVES THE CYCLONE INTO SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA IN 96 HOURS...WHEREAS THE GFS IS MUCH FASTER AND TAKES
OPHELIA MORE THAN 500 NMI EAST OF ITS CURRENT POSITION. THE REST OF
THE MODELS ARE SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. THE OFFICIAL TRACK REMAINS
SLOW AND SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FEW FORECASTS AND IS TO THE LEFT
OF AND SLOWER THAN THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH I FEEL HAS A
FAST BIAS DUE TO THE MUCH FASTER GFS MODEL. THE GFS PERFORMED
SIMILARLY DURING HURRICANE JEANNE LAST YEAR AND HAD SOME VERY LARGE
TRACK ERRORS.
 
SLOW BUT STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST SINCE OPHELIA IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER 29C AND WARMER SSTS AND UNDER LIGHT OT
MODERATE SOUTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR THROUGH 96 HOURS. AFTER THAT
...MORE STRENGTHENING THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST COULD OCCUR
SINCE THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 10 KT. HOWEVER...THE
EXPECTED CLOSE PROXIMITY OF VERY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR PRECLUDES
INCREASING THE INTENSITY IN THE LATTER PERIODS AT THIS TIME.
 
ALL INTERESTS IN NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DEVELOPING CYCLONE.  SHOULD OPHELIA
STRENGTHEN FASTER AND MOVE CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST...A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY SOMETIME ON THURSDAY.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      08/0900Z 28.7N  79.5W    50 KT
 12HR VT     08/1800Z 29.0N  79.6W    55 KT
 24HR VT     09/0600Z 29.4N  79.6W    55 KT
 36HR VT     09/1800Z 29.9N  79.4W    60 KT
 48HR VT     10/0600Z 30.0N  79.1W    65 KT
 72HR VT     11/0600Z 30.2N  78.5W    65 KT
 96HR VT     12/0600Z 30.3N  78.0W    70 KT
120HR VT     13/0600Z 30.0N  78.0W    70 KT
 
$$
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Thursday, 08-Sep-2005 09:10:09 UTC